Fast Scalable and Accurate Discovery of DAGs Using the Best Order Score Search and Grow-Shrink Trees

Learning graphical conditional independence structures is an important machine learning problem and a cornerstone of causal discovery. However, the accuracy and execution time of learning algorithms generally struggle to scale to problems with hundreds of highly connected variables -- for instance, recovering brain networks from fMRI data. We introduce the best order score search (BOSS) and grow-shrink trees (GSTs) for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in this paradigm. BOSS greedily searches over permutations of variables, using GSTs to construct and score DAGs from permutations. GSTs efficiently cache scores to eliminate redundant calculations. BOSS achieves state-of-the-art performance in accuracy and execution time, comparing favorably to a variety of combinatorial and gradient-based learning algorithms under a broad range of conditions. To demonstrate its practicality, we apply BOSS to two sets of resting-state fMRI data: simulated data with pseudo-empirical noise distributions derived from randomized empirical fMRI cortical signals and clinical data from 3T fMRI scans processed into cortical parcels. BOSS is available for use within the TETRAD project which includes Python and R wrappers.

Identification of Effective Connectivity Subregions

Standard fMRI connectivity analyses depend on aggregating the time series of individual voxels within regions of interest (ROIs). In certain cases, this spatial aggregation implies a loss of valuable functional and anatomical information about smaller subsets of voxels that drive the ROI level connectivity. We use two recently published graphical search methods to identify subsets of voxels that are highly responsible for the connectivity between larger ROIs. To illustrate the procedure, we apply both methods to longitudinal high-resolution resting state fMRI data from regions in the medial temporal lobe from a single individual. Both methods recovered similar subsets of voxels within larger ROIs of entorhinal cortex and hippocampus subfields that also show spatial consistency across different scanning sessions and across hemispheres. In contrast to standard functional connectivity methods, both algorithms applied here are robust against false positive connections produced by common causes and indirect paths (in contrast to Pearson's correlation) and common effect conditioning (in contrast to partial correlation based approaches). These algorithms allow for identification of subregions of voxels driving the connectivity between regions of interest, recovering valuable anatomical and functional information that is lost when ROIs are aggregated. Both methods are specially suited for voxelwise connectivity research, given their running times and scalability to big data problems.

Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the `driving force' of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.