Evaluating Soccer Match Prediction Models: A Deep Learning Approach and Feature Optimization for Gradient-Boosted Trees

Machine learning models have become increasingly popular for predicting the results of soccer matches, however, the lack of publicly-available benchmark datasets has made model evaluation challenging. The 2023 Soccer Prediction Challenge required the prediction of match results first in terms of the exact goals scored by each team, and second, in terms of the probabilities for a win, draw, and loss. The original training set of matches and features, which was provided for the competition, was augmented with additional matches that were played between 4 April and 13 April 2023, representing the period after which the training set ended, but prior to the first matches that were to be predicted (upon which the performance was evaluated). A CatBoost model was employed using pi-ratings as the features, which were initially identified as the optimal choice for calculating the win/draw/loss probabilities. Notably, deep learning models have frequently been disregarded in this particular task. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to assess the performance of a deep learning model and determine the optimal feature set for a gradient-boosted tree model. The model was trained using the most recent five years of data, and three training and validation sets were used in a hyperparameter grid search. The results from the validation sets show that our model had strong performance and stability compared to previously published models from the 2017 Soccer Prediction Challenge for win/draw/loss prediction.

Location analysis of players in UEFA EURO 2020 and 2022 using generalized valuation of defense by estimating probabilities

Analyzing defenses in team sports is generally challenging because of the limited event data. Researchers have previously proposed methods to evaluate football team defense by predicting the events of ball gain and being attacked using locations of all players and the ball. However, they did not consider the importance of the events, assumed the perfect observation of all 22 players, and did not fully investigated the influence of the diversity (e.g., nationality and sex). Here, we propose a generalized valuation method of defensive teams by score-scaling the predicted probabilities of the events. Using the open-source location data of all players in broadcast video frames in football games of men's Euro 2020 and women's Euro 2022, we investigated the effect of the number of players on the prediction and validated our approach by analyzing the games. Results show that for the predictions of being attacked, scoring, and conceding, all players' information was not necessary, while that of ball gain required information on three to four offensive and defensive players. With game analyses we explained the excellence in defense of finalist teams in Euro 2020. Our approach might be applicable to location data from broadcast video frames in football games.