A Probabilistic Model of the Bitcoin Blockchain

The Bitcoin transaction graph is a public data structure organized as transactions between addresses, each associated with a logical entity. In this work, we introduce a complete probabilistic model of the Bitcoin Blockchain. We first formulate a set of conditional dependencies induced by the Bitcoin protocol at the block level and derive a corresponding fully observed graphical model of a Bitcoin block. We then extend the model to include hidden entity attributes such as the functional category of the associated logical agent and derive asymptotic bounds on the privacy properties implied by this model. At the network level, we show evidence of complex transaction-to-transaction behavior and present a relevant discriminative model of the agent categories. Performance of both the block-based graphical model and the network-level discriminative model is evaluated on a subset of the public Bitcoin Blockchain.

Characterizing Entities in the Bitcoin Blockchain

Bitcoin has created a new exchange paradigm within which financial transactions can be trusted without an intermediary. This premise of a free decentralized transactional network however requires, in its current implementation, unrestricted access to the ledger for peer-based transaction verification. A number of studies have shown that, in this pseudonymous context, identities can be leaked based on transaction features or off-network information. In this work, we analyze the information revealed by the pattern of transactions in the neighborhood of a given entity transaction. By definition, these features which pertain to an extended network are not directly controllable by the entity, but might enable leakage of information about transacting entities. We define a number of new features relevant to entity characterization on the Bitcoin Blockchain and study their efficacy in practice. We show that even a weak attacker with shallow data mining knowledge is able to leverage these features to characterize the entity properties.