Subset Selection for Stratified Sampling in Online Controlled Experiments

Online controlled experiments, also known as A/B testing, are the digital equivalent of randomized controlled trials for estimating the impact of marketing campaigns on website visitors. Stratified sampling is a traditional technique for variance reduction to improve the sensitivity (or statistical power) of controlled experiments; this technique first divides the population into strata (homogeneous subgroups) based on stratification variables and then draws samples from each stratum to avoid sampling bias. To enhance the estimation accuracy of stratified sampling, we focus on the problem of selecting a subset of stratification variables that are effective in variance reduction. We design an efficient algorithm that selects stratification variables one by one by simulating a series of stratified sampling processes. We also estimate the computational complexity of our subset selection algorithm. Computational experiments using synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method can outperform other variance reduction techniques especially when multiple variables have a certain correlation with the outcome variable. Our subset selection method for stratified sampling can improve the sensitivity of online controlled experiments, thus enabling more reliable marketing decisions.

Using item recommendations and LLMs in marketing email titles

E-commerce marketplaces make use of a number of marketing channels like emails, push notifications, etc. to reach their users and stimulate purchases. Personalized emails especially are a popular touch point for marketers to inform users of latest items in stock, especially for those who stopped visiting the marketplace. Such emails contain personalized recommendations tailored to each user's interests, enticing users to buy relevant items. A common limitation of these emails is that the primary entry point, the title of the email, tends to follow fixed templates, failing to inspire enough interest in the contents. In this work, we explore the potential of large language models (LLMs) for generating thematic titles that reflect the personalized content of the emails. We perform offline simulations and conduct online experiments on the order of millions of users, finding our techniques useful in improving the engagement between customers and our emails. We highlight key findings and learnings as we productionize the safe and automated generation of email titles for millions of users.