The Seismic Wavefield Common Task Framework

Seismology faces fundamental challenges in state forecasting and reconstruction (e.g., earthquake early warning and ground motion prediction) and managing the parametric variability of source locations, mechanisms, and Earth models (e.g., subsurface structure and topography effects). Addressing these with simulations is hindered by their massive scale, both in synthetic data volumes and numerical complexity, while real-data efforts are constrained by models that inadequately reflect the Earth's complexity and by sparse sensor measurements from the field. Recent machine learning (ML) efforts offer promise, but progress is obscured by a lack of proper characterization, fair reporting, and rigorous comparisons. To address this, we introduce a Common Task Framework (CTF) for ML for seismic wavefields, starting with three distinct wavefield datasets. Our CTF features a curated set of datasets at various scales (global, crustal, and local) and task-specific metrics spanning forecasting, reconstruction, and generalization under realistic constraints such as noise and limited data. Inspired by CTFs in fields like natural language processing, this framework provides a structured and rigorous foundation for head-to-head algorithm evaluation. We illustrate the evaluation procedure with scores reported for two of the datasets, showcasing the performance of various methods and foundation models for reconstructing seismic wavefields from both simulated and real-world sensor measurements. The CTF scores reveal the strengths, limitations, and suitability for specific problem classes. Our vision is to replace ad hoc comparisons with standardized evaluations on hidden test sets, raising the bar for rigor and reproducibility in scientific ML.

Visual design intuition: Predicting dynamic properties of beams from raw cross-section images

In this work we aim to mimic the human ability to acquire the intuition to estimate the performance of a design from visual inspection and experience alone. We study the ability of convolutional neural networks to predict static and dynamic properties of cantilever beams directly from their raw cross-section images. Using pixels as the only input, the resulting models learn to predict beam properties such as volume maximum deflection and eigenfrequencies with 4.54% and 1.43% Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) respectively, compared to the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) approach. Training these models doesn't require prior knowledge of theory or relevant geometric properties, but rather relies solely on simulated or empirical data, thereby making predictions based on "experience" as opposed to theoretical knowledge. Since this approach is over 1000 times faster than FEA, it can be adopted to create surrogate models that could speed up the preliminary optimization studies where numerous consecutive evaluations of similar geometries are required. We suggest that this modeling approach would aid in addressing challenging optimization problems involving complex structures and physical phenomena for which theoretical models are unavailable.