Abstract:Learning Koopman operators with autoencoders enables linear prediction in a latent space, but long-horizon rollouts often drift off the learned manifold, leading to phase and amplitude errors on systems with switching, continuous spectra, or strong transients. We introduce two complementary components that make Koopman predictors more robust. First, we add an attention-free latent memory (AFT) block that aggregates a short window of past latents to produce a corrected latent before each Koopman update. Unlike multi-head attention, AFT operates in linear time and adds only $\approx$30k parameters ($3d^2 + T^2$, fewer than matched multi-head attention), yet captures the local temporal context needed to suppress error divergence. Second, we propose dynamic re-encoding: lightweight, online change-point triggers (EWMA, CUSUM, and sequential two-sample tests) that detect latent drift and project predictions back onto the autoencoder manifold. Across three benchmark systems -- Duffing oscillator, Repressilator, IRMA -- our model consistently reduces error accumulation compared to a Koopman autoencoder and matched-capacity multi-head attention. We also compare against GRU and Transformer autoencoders, evaluated both from initial conditions and with a 50-step context, and find that Koopman+AFT (with optional re-encoding) attains markedly lower long-horizon error while maintaining lower inference latency. We report improvements over horizons up to 1000 steps, together with ablations over trigger policies. The result is a fast, compact predictor that stays on the learned manifold over long horizons.
Abstract:Seismology faces fundamental challenges in state forecasting and reconstruction (e.g., earthquake early warning and ground motion prediction) and managing the parametric variability of source locations, mechanisms, and Earth models (e.g., subsurface structure and topography effects). Addressing these with simulations is hindered by their massive scale, both in synthetic data volumes and numerical complexity, while real-data efforts are constrained by models that inadequately reflect the Earth's complexity and by sparse sensor measurements from the field. Recent machine learning (ML) efforts offer promise, but progress is obscured by a lack of proper characterization, fair reporting, and rigorous comparisons. To address this, we introduce a Common Task Framework (CTF) for ML for seismic wavefields, starting with three distinct wavefield datasets. Our CTF features a curated set of datasets at various scales (global, crustal, and local) and task-specific metrics spanning forecasting, reconstruction, and generalization under realistic constraints such as noise and limited data. Inspired by CTFs in fields like natural language processing, this framework provides a structured and rigorous foundation for head-to-head algorithm evaluation. We illustrate the evaluation procedure with scores reported for two of the datasets, showcasing the performance of various methods and foundation models for reconstructing seismic wavefields from both simulated and real-world sensor measurements. The CTF scores reveal the strengths, limitations, and suitability for specific problem classes. Our vision is to replace ad hoc comparisons with standardized evaluations on hidden test sets, raising the bar for rigor and reproducibility in scientific ML.