The complexities of patient-centred conversational artificial intelligence

Consumer-facing health chatbots powered by large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for symptom assessment. However, chatbot development and evaluation often rely on cooperative, articulate, simulated patients. We analysed 2,053 real patient-chatbot conversations and found that communication patterns and expression of emotions vary widely across users. We developed a patient simulator that separately models clinical content, emotional state, conversational strategy, and communication style. In a Turing-inspired evaluation of realism with 15 human graders, simulated conversations were nearly indistinguishable from real ones, with human graders achieving an accuracy of 55%. We used five distinct patient personae, across 1,164 clinician-graded cases, to evaluate the performance of four LLMs in urgency assessment. We found that communication style can significantly alter triage outcomes. Patient-centred conversational artificial intelligence must accommodate communication diversity: systems designed for idealised, rather than realistic, interactions risk underperforming and amplifying health disparities when deployed in the real world.

Understanding random forests and overfitting: a visualization and simulation study

Random forests have become popular for clinical risk prediction modelling. In a case study on predicting ovarian malignancy, we observed training c-statistics close to 1. Although this suggests overfitting, performance was competitive on test data. We aimed to understand the behaviour of random forests by (1) visualizing data space in three real world case studies and (2) a simulation study. For the case studies, risk estimates were visualised using heatmaps in a 2-dimensional subspace. The simulation study included 48 logistic data generating mechanisms (DGM), varying the predictor distribution, the number of predictors, the correlation between predictors, the true c-statistic and the strength of true predictors. For each DGM, 1000 training datasets of size 200 or 4000 were simulated and RF models trained with minimum node size 2 or 20 using ranger package, resulting in 192 scenarios in total. The visualizations suggested that the model learned spikes of probability around events in the training set. A cluster of events created a bigger peak, isolated events local peaks. In the simulation study, median training c-statistics were between 0.97 and 1 unless there were 4 or 16 binary predictors with minimum node size 20. Median test c-statistics were higher with higher events per variable, higher minimum node size, and binary predictors. Median training slopes were always above 1, and were not correlated with median test slopes across scenarios (correlation -0.11). Median test slopes were higher with higher true c-statistic, higher minimum node size, and higher sample size. Random forests learn local probability peaks that often yield near perfect training c-statistics without strongly affecting c-statistics on test data. When the aim is probability estimation, the simulation results go against the common recommendation to use fully grown trees in random forest models.