CEHR-GPT: Generating Electronic Health Records with Chronological Patient Timelines

Synthetic Electronic Health Records (EHR) have emerged as a pivotal tool in advancing healthcare applications and machine learning models, particularly for researchers without direct access to healthcare data. Although existing methods, like rule-based approaches and generative adversarial networks (GANs), generate synthetic data that resembles real-world EHR data, these methods often use a tabular format, disregarding temporal dependencies in patient histories and limiting data replication. Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT) for EHR data. This enables applications like disease progression analysis, population estimation, counterfactual reasoning, and synthetic data generation. In this work, we focus on synthetic data generation and demonstrate the capability of training a GPT model using a particular patient representation derived from CEHR-BERT, enabling us to generate patient sequences that can be seamlessly converted to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) data format.

Variational Shapley Network: A Probabilistic Approach to Self-Explaining Shapley values with Uncertainty Quantification

Shapley values have emerged as a foundational tool in machine learning (ML) for elucidating model decision-making processes. Despite their widespread adoption and unique ability to satisfy essential explainability axioms, computational challenges persist in their estimation when ($i$) evaluating a model over all possible subset of input feature combinations, ($ii$) estimating model marginals, and ($iii$) addressing variability in explanations. We introduce a novel, self-explaining method that simplifies the computation of Shapley values significantly, requiring only a single forward pass. Recognizing the deterministic treatment of Shapley values as a limitation, we explore incorporating a probabilistic framework to capture the inherent uncertainty in explanations. Unlike alternatives, our technique does not rely directly on the observed data space to estimate marginals; instead, it uses adaptable baseline values derived from a latent, feature-specific embedding space, generated by a novel masked neural network architecture. Evaluations on simulated and real datasets underscore our technique's robust predictive and explanatory performance.

SPEER: Sentence-Level Planning of Long Clinical Summaries via Embedded Entity Retrieval

Clinician must write a lengthy summary each time a patient is discharged from the hospital. This task is time-consuming due to the sheer number of unique clinical concepts covered in the admission. Identifying and covering salient entities is vital for the summary to be clinically useful. We fine-tune open-source LLMs (Mistral-7B-Instruct and Zephyr-7B-\b{eta}) on the task and find that they generate incomplete and unfaithful summaries. To increase entity coverage, we train a smaller, encoder-only model to predict salient entities, which are treated as content-plans to guide the LLM. To encourage the LLM to focus on specific mentions in the source notes, we propose SPEER: Sentence-level Planning via Embedded Entity Retrieval. Specifically, we mark each salient entity span with special "{{ }}" boundary tags and instruct the LLM to retrieve marked spans before generating each sentence. Sentence-level planning acts as a form of state tracking in that the model is explicitly recording the entities it uses. We fine-tune Mistral and Zephyr variants on a large-scale, diverse dataset of ~167k in-patient hospital admissions and evaluate on 3 datasets. SPEER shows gains in both coverage and faithfulness metrics over non-guided and guided baselines.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Flexible Survival Densities with Importance Sampling

Survival analysis is a widely-used technique for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of censoring. In recent years, numerous survival analysis methods have emerged which scale to large datasets and relax traditional assumptions such as proportional hazards. These models, while being performant, are very sensitive to model hyperparameters including: (1) number of bins and bin size for discrete models and (2) number of cluster assignments for mixture-based models. Each of these choices requires extensive tuning by practitioners to achieve optimal performance. In addition, we demonstrate in empirical studies that: (1) optimal bin size may drastically differ based on the metric of interest (e.g., concordance vs brier score), and (2) mixture models may suffer from mode collapse and numerical instability. We propose a survival analysis approach which eliminates the need to tune hyperparameters such as mixture assignments and bin sizes, reducing the burden on practitioners. We show that the proposed approach matches or outperforms baselines on several real-world datasets.

A Coreset-based, Tempered Variational Posterior for Accurate and Scalable Stochastic Gaussian Process Inference

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for $\mathcal{GP}$s (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the $\mathcal{GP}$ prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent $\mathcal{GP}$ coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to $\mathcal{O}(M)$, enjoys numerical stability, and maintains $\mathcal{O}(M^3)$ time- and $\mathcal{O}(M^2)$ space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic $\mathcal{GP}$ inference methods.

From Sparse to Dense: GPT-4 Summarization with Chain of Density Prompting

Selecting the ``right'' amount of information to include in a summary is a difficult task. A good summary should be detailed and entity-centric without being overly dense and hard to follow. To better understand this tradeoff, we solicit increasingly dense GPT-4 summaries with what we refer to as a ``Chain of Density'' (CoD) prompt. Specifically, GPT-4 generates an initial entity-sparse summary before iteratively incorporating missing salient entities without increasing the length. Summaries generated by CoD are more abstractive, exhibit more fusion, and have less of a lead bias than GPT-4 summaries generated by a vanilla prompt. We conduct a human preference study on 100 CNN DailyMail articles and find that that humans prefer GPT-4 summaries that are more dense than those generated by a vanilla prompt and almost as dense as human written summaries. Qualitative analysis supports the notion that there exists a tradeoff between informativeness and readability. 500 annotated CoD summaries, as well as an extra 5,000 unannotated summaries, are freely available on HuggingFace (https://huggingface.co/datasets/griffin/chain_of_density).

Generating EDU Extracts for Plan-Guided Summary Re-Ranking

Two-step approaches, in which summary candidates are generated-then-reranked to return a single summary, can improve ROUGE scores over the standard single-step approach. Yet, standard decoding methods (i.e., beam search, nucleus sampling, and diverse beam search) produce candidates with redundant, and often low quality, content. In this paper, we design a novel method to generate candidates for re-ranking that addresses these issues. We ground each candidate abstract on its own unique content plan and generate distinct plan-guided abstracts using a model's top beam. More concretely, a standard language model (a BART LM) auto-regressively generates elemental discourse unit (EDU) content plans with an extractive copy mechanism. The top K beams from the content plan generator are then used to guide a separate LM, which produces a single abstractive candidate for each distinct plan. We apply an existing re-ranker (BRIO) to abstractive candidates generated from our method, as well as baseline decoding methods. We show large relevance improvements over previously published methods on widely used single document news article corpora, with ROUGE-2 F1 gains of 0.88, 2.01, and 0.38 on CNN / Dailymail, NYT, and Xsum, respectively. A human evaluation on CNN / DM validates these results. Similarly, on 1k samples from CNN / DM, we show that prompting GPT-3 to follow EDU plans outperforms sampling-based methods by 1.05 ROUGE-2 F1 points. Code to generate and realize plans is available at https://github.com/griff4692/edu-sum.

What are the Desired Characteristics of Calibration Sets? Identifying Correlates on Long Form Scientific Summarization

Summarization models often generate text that is poorly calibrated to quality metrics because they are trained to maximize the likelihood of a single reference (MLE). To address this, recent work has added a calibration step, which exposes a model to its own ranked outputs to improve relevance or, in a separate line of work, contrasts positive and negative sets to improve faithfulness. While effective, much of this work has focused on how to generate and optimize these sets. Less is known about why one setup is more effective than another. In this work, we uncover the underlying characteristics of effective sets. For each training instance, we form a large, diverse pool of candidates and systematically vary the subsets used for calibration fine-tuning. Each selection strategy targets distinct aspects of the sets, such as lexical diversity or the size of the gap between positive and negatives. On three diverse scientific long-form summarization datasets (spanning biomedical, clinical, and chemical domains), we find, among others, that faithfulness calibration is optimal when the negative sets are extractive and more likely to be generated, whereas for relevance calibration, the metric margin between candidates should be maximized and surprise--the disagreement between model and metric defined candidate rankings--minimized. Code to create, select, and optimize calibration sets is available at https://github.com/griff4692/calibrating-summaries

A Meta-Evaluation of Faithfulness Metrics for Long-Form Hospital-Course Summarization

Long-form clinical summarization of hospital admissions has real-world significance because of its potential to help both clinicians and patients. The faithfulness of summaries is critical to their safe usage in clinical settings. To better understand the limitations of abstractive systems, as well as the suitability of existing evaluation metrics, we benchmark faithfulness metrics against fine-grained human annotations for model-generated summaries of a patient's Brief Hospital Course. We create a corpus of patient hospital admissions and summaries for a cohort of HIV patients, each with complex medical histories. Annotators are presented with summaries and source notes, and asked to categorize manually highlighted summary elements (clinical entities like conditions and medications as well as actions like "following up") into one of three categories: ``Incorrect,'' ``Missing,'' and ``Not in Notes.'' We meta-evaluate a broad set of proposed faithfulness metrics and, across metrics, explore the importance of domain adaptation (e.g. the impact of in-domain pre-training and metric fine-tuning), the use of source-summary alignments, and the effects of distilling a single metric from an ensemble of pre-existing metrics. Off-the-shelf metrics with no exposure to clinical text correlate well yet overly rely on summary extractiveness. As a practical guide to long-form clinical narrative summarization, we find that most metrics correlate best to human judgments when provided with one summary sentence at a time and a minimal set of relevant source context.

Learning to Revise References for Faithful Summarization

In many real-world scenarios with naturally occurring datasets, reference summaries are noisy and contain information that cannot be inferred from the source text. On large news corpora, removing low quality samples has been shown to reduce model hallucinations. Yet, this method is largely untested for smaller, noisier corpora. To improve reference quality while retaining all data, we propose a new approach: to revise--not remove--unsupported reference content. Without ground-truth supervision, we construct synthetic unsupported alternatives to supported sentences and use contrastive learning to discourage/encourage (un)faithful revisions. At inference, we vary style codes to over-generate revisions of unsupported reference sentences and select a final revision which balances faithfulness and abstraction. We extract a small corpus from a noisy source--the Electronic Health Record (EHR)--for the task of summarizing a hospital admission from multiple notes. Training models on original, filtered, and revised references, we find (1) learning from revised references reduces the hallucination rate substantially more than filtering (18.4\% vs 3.8\%), (2) learning from abstractive (vs extractive) revisions improves coherence, relevance, and faithfulness, (3) beyond redress of noisy data, the revision task has standalone value for the task: as a pre-training objective and as a post-hoc editor.