Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

Uncertainty estimation is important for deploying LLMs in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where hallucinations can appear fluent and plausible while being factually incorrect, making it difficult for users to judge whether an output should be trusted. Existing methods require one or more full autoregressive generations to estimate uncertainty, which introduces substantial inference cost and often delays uncertainty assessment. In this paper, we investigate whether effective uncertainty estimation can be achieved with partial generation or even input-only information. Specifically, we first develop a unified framework that formulates uncertainty estimation as an early estimation problem over the autoregressive generation process of LLMs. This framework organises existing and proposed estimators by the information they observe, ranging from multi-generation to input-only prediction, and clarifies the performance-cost trade-off underlying different uncertainty estimation methods. Building on this view, we study two largely underexplored low-cost settings: estimating uncertainty with part of the generation, and predicting uncertainty from the input prompt. We propose Logit Magnitude, which uses top-M logit evidence to estimate uncertainty from an early-stopped generation prefix, and MetaUE, which distils generation-based uncertainty into a lightweight input-only estimator trained with uncertainty scores. Extensive experiments on general and domain-specific benchmarks show that Logit Magnitude achieves strong performance, and partial generations of LLMs are often sufficient for effective uncertainty estimation. MetaUE further provides a competitive input-only approximation in several settings. These findings suggest that effective uncertainty estimation requires less generation than commonly assumed, enabling unreliable responses to be identified earlier.

The Taxonomies, Training, and Applications of Event Stream Modelling for Electronic Health Records

The widespread adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) enables the acquisition of heterogeneous clinical data, spanning lab tests, vital signs, medications, and procedures, which offer transformative potential for artificial intelligence in healthcare. Although traditional modelling approaches have typically relied on multivariate time series, they often struggle to accommodate the inherent sparsity and irregularity of real-world clinical workflows. Consequently, research has shifted toward event stream representation, which treats patient records as continuous sequences, thereby preserving the precise temporal structure of the patient journey. However, the existing literature remains fragmented, characterised by inconsistent definitions, disparate modelling architectures, and varying training protocols. To address these gaps, this review establishes a unified definition of EHR event streams and introduces a novel taxonomy that categorises models based on their handling of event time, type, and value. We systematically review training strategies, ranging from supervised learning to self-supervised methods, and provide a comprehensive discussion of applications across clinical scenarios. Finally, we identify open critical challenges and future directions, with the aim of clarifying the current landscape and guiding the development of next-generation healthcare models.

Bridging Data Gaps of Rare Conditions in ICU: A Multi-Disease Adaptation Approach for Clinical Prediction

Artificial Intelligence has revolutionised critical care for common conditions. Yet, rare conditions in the intensive care unit (ICU), including recognised rare diseases and low-prevalence conditions in the ICU, remain underserved due to data scarcity and intra-condition heterogeneity. To bridge such gaps, we developed KnowRare, a domain adaptation-based deep learning framework for predicting clinical outcomes for rare conditions in the ICU. KnowRare mitigates data scarcity by initially learning condition-agnostic representations from diverse electronic health records through self-supervised pre-training. It addresses intra-condition heterogeneity by selectively adapting knowledge from clinically similar conditions with a developed condition knowledge graph. Evaluated on two ICU datasets across five clinical prediction tasks (90-day mortality, 30-day readmission, ICU mortality, remaining length of stay, and phenotyping), KnowRare consistently outperformed existing state-of-the-art models. Additionally, KnowRare demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to established ICU scoring systems, including APACHE IV and IV-a. Case studies further demonstrated KnowRare's flexibility in adapting its parameters to accommodate dataset-specific and task-specific characteristics, its generalisation to common conditions under limited data scenarios, and its rationality in selecting source conditions. These findings highlight KnowRare's potential as a robust and practical solution for supporting clinical decision-making and improving care for rare conditions in the ICU.

DTR-Bench: An in silico Environment and Benchmark Platform for Reinforcement Learning Based Dynamic Treatment Regime

Reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered increasing recognition for its potential to optimise dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) in personalised medicine, particularly for drug dosage prescriptions and medication recommendations. However, a significant challenge persists: the absence of a unified framework for simulating diverse healthcare scenarios and a comprehensive analysis to benchmark the effectiveness of RL algorithms within these contexts. To address this gap, we introduce \textit{DTR-Bench}, a benchmarking platform comprising four distinct simulation environments tailored to common DTR applications, including cancer chemotherapy, radiotherapy, glucose management in diabetes, and sepsis treatment. We evaluate various state-of-the-art RL algorithms across these settings, particularly highlighting their performance amidst real-world challenges such as pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) variability, noise, and missing data. Our experiments reveal varying degrees of performance degradation among RL algorithms in the presence of noise and patient variability, with some algorithms failing to converge. Additionally, we observe that using temporal observation representations does not consistently lead to improved performance in DTR settings. Our findings underscore the necessity of developing robust, adaptive RL algorithms capable of effectively managing these complexities to enhance patient-specific healthcare. We have open-sourced our benchmark and code at https://github.com/GilesLuo/DTR-Bench.