Uncertainty Quantification for Flow-Based Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) combine vision-language backbones with expressive generative action heads trained via flow matching on large-scale robotic datasets. Despite their strong empirical performance in robotic manipulation, VLAs lack mechanisms to quantify confidence in their predictions and to detect when their actions may be unreliable. This presents a critical limitation for real-world deployment in non-stationary environments, where models inevitably encounter scenarios outside their pretraining distribution and may fail without warning. To address this, we derive an efficient method for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-matching models by leveraging velocity-field disagreement (VFD) across a small ensemble. We successfully use this uncertainty estimate for failure detection during deployment and active fine-tuning of flow-based VLAs. To this end, we propose SAVE, a framework for uncertainty-guided active multitask fine-tuning that reduces the number of costly expert demonstrations required to adapt VLAs to new tasks. Through extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate that VFD yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates predictive of downstream performance, that VFD achieves strong performance in detecting failures, and that uncertainty-guided data acquisition with SAVE requires at least 22% fewer samples than baselines. In summary, our work shows that quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-based VLAs improves both failure awareness and adaptation. Project website: tum-lsy.github.io/uq_vla/.

Automated Approach for Solving Infinite-state Polynomial Reachability Games

Reachability games are two-player games played on a graph, where the objective of $\texttt{REACH}$ player is to reach the target set whereas the objective of $\texttt{SAFE}$ player is to stay away from the target set. Reachability games have important applications in artificial intelligence and reactive synthesis, and many of these applications give rise to infinite-state reachability games. In this paper, we study turn-based reachability games on infinite-state graphs defined over valuations of a finite set of real variables. We consider the problem of determining the existence of and computing a winning strategy for $\texttt{REACH}$ player. Our contributions are twofold. First, we propose ranking certificates for reachability games, a sound and complete proof rule for proving that $\texttt{REACH}$ player has a winning strategy from the specified initial state. Second, we consider polynomial reachability games, where transitions and objectives are described by polynomial constraints over real variables, and propose a fully automated algorithm for computing a winning strategy for $\texttt{REACH}$ player together with a formal correctness witness in the form of a ranking certificate. The algorithm is sound, semi-complete, and runs in sub-exponential time. Our experiments demonstrate the ability of our method to solve challenging examples from the literature that were out of the reach of existing methods. Specifically, for the classical Cinderella-Stepmother game, we are able to compute an optimal winning strategy for an arbitrary precision parameter for the first time.

Quantified Linear and Polynomial Arithmetic Satisfiability via Template-based Skolemization

The problem of checking satisfiability of linear real arithmetic (LRA) and non-linear real arithmetic (NRA) formulas has broad applications, in particular, they are at the heart of logic-related applications such as logic for artificial intelligence, program analysis, etc. While there has been much work on checking satisfiability of unquantified LRA and NRA formulas, the problem of checking satisfiability of quantified LRA and NRA formulas remains a significant challenge. The main bottleneck in the existing methods is a computationally expensive quantifier elimination step. In this work, we propose a novel method for efficient quantifier elimination in quantified LRA and NRA formulas. We propose a template-based Skolemization approach, where we automatically synthesize linear/polynomial Skolem functions in order to eliminate quantifiers in the formula. The key technical ingredients in our approach are Positivstellens\"atze theorems from algebraic geometry, which allow for an efficient manipulation of polynomial inequalities. Our method offers a range of appealing theoretical properties combined with a strong practical performance. On the theory side, our method is sound, semi-complete, and runs in subexponential time and polynomial space, as opposed to existing sound and complete quantifier elimination methods that run in doubly-exponential time and at least exponential space. On the practical side, our experiments show superior performance compared to state-of-the-art SMT solvers in terms of the number of solved instances and runtime, both on LRA and on NRA benchmarks.