Rare event modeling with self-regularized normalizing flows: what can we learn from a single failure?

Increased deployment of autonomous systems in fields like transportation and robotics have seen a corresponding increase in safety-critical failures. These failures can be difficult to model and debug due to the relative lack of data: compared to tens of thousands of examples from normal operations, we may have only seconds of data leading up to the failure. This scarcity makes it challenging to train generative models of rare failure events, as existing methods risk either overfitting to noise in the limited failure dataset or underfitting due to an overly strong prior. We address this challenge with CalNF, or calibrated normalizing flows, a self-regularized framework for posterior learning from limited data. CalNF achieves state-of-the-art performance on data-limited failure modeling and inverse problems and enables a first-of-a-kind case study into the root causes of the 2022 Southwest Airlines scheduling crisis.

CHATATC: Large Language Model-Driven Conversational Agents for Supporting Strategic Air Traffic Flow Management

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) have gained rapid popularity through publicly available tools such as ChatGPT. The adoption of LLMs for personal and professional use is fueled by the natural interactions between human users and computer applications such as ChatGPT, along with powerful summarization and text generation capabilities. Given the widespread use of such generative AI tools, in this work we investigate how these tools can be deployed in a non-safety critical, strategic traffic flow management setting. Specifically, we train an LLM, CHATATC, based on a large historical data set of Ground Delay Program (GDP) issuances, spanning 2000-2023 and consisting of over 80,000 GDP implementations, revisions, and cancellations. We test the query and response capabilities of CHATATC, documenting successes (e.g., providing correct GDP rates, durations, and reason) and shortcomings (e.g,. superlative questions). We also detail the design of a graphical user interface for future users to interact and collaborate with the CHATATC conversational agent.