Universal Lower Bounds and Optimal Rates: Achieving Minimax Clustering Error in Sub-Exponential Mixture Models

Clustering is a pivotal challenge in unsupervised machine learning and is often investigated through the lens of mixture models. The optimal error rate for recovering cluster labels in Gaussian and sub-Gaussian mixture models involves ad hoc signal-to-noise ratios. Simple iterative algorithms, such as Lloyd's algorithm, attain this optimal error rate. In this paper, we first establish a universal lower bound for the error rate in clustering any mixture model, expressed through a Chernoff divergence, a more versatile measure of model information than signal-to-noise ratios. We then demonstrate that iterative algorithms attain this lower bound in mixture models with sub-exponential tails, notably emphasizing location-scale mixtures featuring Laplace-distributed errors. Additionally, for datasets better modelled by Poisson or Negative Binomial mixtures, we study mixture models whose distributions belong to an exponential family. In such mixtures, we establish that Bregman hard clustering, a variant of Lloyd's algorithm employing a Bregman divergence, is rate optimal.

Efficiently Escaping Saddle Points for Non-Convex Policy Optimization

Policy gradient (PG) is widely used in reinforcement learning due to its scalability and good performance. In recent years, several variance-reduced PG methods have been proposed with a theoretical guarantee of converging to an approximate first-order stationary point (FOSP) with the sample complexity of $O(\epsilon^{-3})$. However, FOSPs could be bad local optima or saddle points. Moreover, these algorithms often use importance sampling (IS) weights which could impair the statistical effectiveness of variance reduction. In this paper, we propose a variance-reduced second-order method that uses second-order information in the form of Hessian vector products (HVP) and converges to an approximate second-order stationary point (SOSP) with sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(\epsilon^{-3})$. This rate improves the best-known sample complexity for achieving approximate SOSPs by a factor of $O(\epsilon^{-0.5})$. Moreover, the proposed variance reduction technique bypasses IS weights by using HVP terms. Our experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state of the art and is more robust to changes in random seeds.

Studying Lobby Influence in the European Parliament

We present a method based on natural language processing (NLP), for studying the influence of interest groups (lobbies) in the law-making process in the European Parliament (EP). We collect and analyze novel datasets of lobbies' position papers and speeches made by members of the EP (MEPs). By comparing these texts on the basis of semantic similarity and entailment, we are able to discover interpretable links between MEPs and lobbies. In the absence of a ground-truth dataset of such links, we perform an indirect validation by comparing the discovered links with a dataset, which we curate, of retweet links between MEPs and lobbies, and with the publicly disclosed meetings of MEPs. Our best method achieves an AUC score of 0.77 and performs significantly better than several baselines. Moreover, an aggregate analysis of the discovered links, between groups of related lobbies and political groups of MEPs, correspond to the expectations from the ideology of the groups (e.g., center-left groups are associated with social causes). We believe that this work, which encompasses the methodology, datasets, and results, is a step towards enhancing the transparency of the intricate decision-making processes within democratic institutions.

It's All Relative: Interpretable Models for Scoring Bias in Documents

We propose an interpretable model to score the bias present in web documents, based only on their textual content. Our model incorporates assumptions reminiscent of the Bradley-Terry axioms and is trained on pairs of revisions of the same Wikipedia article, where one version is more biased than the other. While prior approaches based on absolute bias classification have struggled to obtain a high accuracy for the task, we are able to develop a useful model for scoring bias by learning to perform pairwise comparisons of bias accurately. We show that we can interpret the parameters of the trained model to discover the words most indicative of bias. We also apply our model in three different settings - studying the temporal evolution of bias in Wikipedia articles, comparing news sources based on bias, and scoring bias in law amendments. In each case, we demonstrate that the outputs of the model can be explained and validated, even for the two domains that are outside the training-data domain. We also use the model to compare the general level of bias between domains, where we see that legal texts are the least biased and news media are the most biased, with Wikipedia articles in between. Given its high performance, simplicity, interpretability, and wide applicability, we hope the model will be useful for a large community, including Wikipedia and news editors, political and social scientists, and the general public.

Fast Interactive Search with a Scale-Free Comparison Oracle

A comparison-based search algorithm lets a user find a target item $t$ in a database by answering queries of the form, ``Which of items $i$ and $j$ is closer to $t$?'' Instead of formulating an explicit query (such as one or several keywords), the user navigates towards the target via a sequence of such (typically noisy) queries. We propose a scale-free probabilistic oracle model called $\gamma$-CKL for such similarity triplets $(i,j;t)$, which generalizes the CKL triplet model proposed in the literature. The generalization affords independent control over the discriminating power of the oracle and the dimension of the feature space containing the items. We develop a search algorithm with provably exponential rate of convergence under the $\gamma$-CKL oracle, thanks to a backtracking strategy that deals with the unavoidable errors in updating the belief region around the target. We evaluate the performance of the algorithm both over the posited oracle and over several real-world triplet datasets. We also report on a comprehensive user study, where human subjects navigate a database of face portraits.

When Does Bottom-up Beat Top-down in Hierarchical Community Detection?

Hierarchical clustering of networks consists in finding a tree of communities, such that lower levels of the hierarchy reveal finer-grained community structures. There are two main classes of algorithms tackling this problem. Divisive ($\textit{top-down}$) algorithms recursively partition the nodes into two communities, until a stopping rule indicates that no further split is needed. In contrast, agglomerative ($\textit{bottom-up}$) algorithms first identify the smallest community structure and then repeatedly merge the communities using a $\textit{linkage}$ method. In this article, we establish theoretical guarantees for the recovery of the hierarchical tree and community structure of a Hierarchical Stochastic Block Model by a bottom-up algorithm. We also establish that this bottom-up algorithm attains the information-theoretic threshold for exact recovery at intermediate levels of the hierarchy. Notably, these recovery conditions are less restrictive compared to those existing for top-down algorithms. This shows that bottom-up algorithms extend the feasible region for achieving exact recovery at intermediate levels. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data sets confirm the superiority of bottom-up algorithms over top-down algorithms. We also observe that top-down algorithms can produce dendrograms with inversions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of hierarchical clustering techniques and their applications in network analysis.

Self-Supervised Prototypical Transfer Learning for Few-Shot Classification

Most approaches in few-shot learning rely on costly annotated data related to the goal task domain during (pre-)training. Recently, unsupervised meta-learning methods have exchanged the annotation requirement for a reduction in few-shot classification performance. Simultaneously, in settings with realistic domain shift, common transfer learning has been shown to outperform supervised meta-learning. Building on these insights and on advances in self-supervised learning, we propose a transfer learning approach which constructs a metric embedding that clusters unlabeled prototypical samples and their augmentations closely together. This pre-trained embedding is a starting point for few-shot classification by summarizing class clusters and fine-tuning. We demonstrate that our self-supervised prototypical transfer learning approach ProtoTransfer outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised meta-learning methods on few-shot tasks from the mini-ImageNet dataset. In few-shot experiments with domain shift, our approach even has comparable performance to supervised methods, but requires orders of magnitude fewer labels.

A User Study of Perceived Carbon Footprint

We propose a statistical model to understand people's perception of their carbon footprint. Driven by the observation that few people think of CO2 impact in absolute terms, we design a system to probe people's perception from simple pairwise comparisons of the relative carbon footprint of their actions. The formulation of the model enables us to take an active-learning approach to selecting the pairs of actions that are maximally informative about the model parameters. We define a set of 18 actions and collect a dataset of 2183 comparisons from 176 users on a university campus. The early results reveal promising directions to improve climate communication and enhance climate mitigation.

Learning Hawkes Processes from a Handful of Events

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the risk of overfitting and regularization becomes critical. Due to the challenges of hyper-parameter tuning, state-of-the-art methods only parameterize regularizers by a single shared hyper-parameter, hence limiting the power of representation of the model. To solve both issues, we develop in this work an efficient algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization. Our approach is able to optimize over an extended set of hyper-parameters. It is also able to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters by learning a posterior distribution over them. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods under short observation sequences.