Deep graph kernel point processes

Point process models are widely used to analyze asynchronous events occurring within a graph that reflect how different types of events influence one another. Predicting future events' times and types is a crucial task, and the size and topology of the graph add to the challenge of the problem. Recent neural point process models unveil the possibility of capturing intricate inter-event-category dependencies. However, such methods utilize an unfiltered history of events, including all event categories in the intensity computation for each target event type. In this work, we propose a graph point process method where event interactions occur based on a latent graph topology. The corresponding undirected graph has nodes representing event categories and edges indicating potential contribution relationships. We then develop a novel deep graph kernel to characterize the triggering and inhibiting effects between events. The intrinsic influence structures are incorporated via the graph neural network (GNN) model used to represent the learnable kernel. The computational efficiency of the GNN approach allows our model to scale to large graphs. Comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data show the superior performance of our approach against the state-of-the-art methods in predicting future events and uncovering the relational structure among data.

Neural Stein critics with staged $L^2$-regularization

Learning to differentiate model distributions from observed data is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning, and high-dimensional data remains a challenging setting for such problems. Metrics that quantify the disparity in probability distributions, such as the Stein discrepancy, play an important role in statistical testing in high dimensions. In this paper, we consider the setting where one wishes to distinguish between data sampled from an unknown probability distribution and a nominal model distribution. While recent studies revealed that the optimal $L^2$-regularized Stein critic equals the difference of the score functions of two probability distributions up to a multiplicative constant, we investigate the role of $L^2$ regularization when training a neural network Stein discrepancy critic function. Motivated by the Neural Tangent Kernel theory of training neural networks, we develop a novel staging procedure for the weight of regularization over training time. This leverages the advantages of highly-regularized training at early times while also empirically delaying overfitting. Theoretically, we relate the training dynamic with large regularization weight to the kernel regression optimization of "lazy training" regime in early training times. The benefit of the staged $L^2$ regularization is demonstrated on simulated high dimensional distribution drift data and an application to evaluating generative models of image data.