As easy as APC: Leveraging self-supervised learning in the context of time series classification with varying levels of sparsity and severe class imbalance

High levels of sparsity and strong class imbalance are ubiquitous challenges that are often presented simultaneously in real-world time series data. While most methods tackle each problem separately, our proposed approach handles both in conjunction, while imposing fewer assumptions on the data. In this work, we propose leveraging a self-supervised learning method, specifically Autoregressive Predictive Coding (APC), to learn relevant hidden representations of time series data in the context of both missing data and class imbalance. We apply APC using either a GRU or GRU-D encoder on two real-world datasets, and show that applying one-step-ahead prediction with APC improves the classification results in all settings. In fact, by applying GRU-D - APC, we achieve state-of-the-art AUPRC results on the Physionet benchmark.

Predicting pregnancy using large-scale data from a women's health tracking mobile application

Predicting pregnancy has been a fundamental problem in women's health for more than 50 years. Previous datasets have been collected via carefully curated medical studies, but the recent growth of women's health tracking mobile apps offers potential for reaching a much broader population. However, the feasibility of predicting pregnancy from mobile health tracking data is unclear. Here we develop four models -- a logistic regression model, and 3 LSTM models -- to predict a woman's probability of becoming pregnant using data from a women's health tracking app, Clue by BioWink GmbH. Evaluating our models on a dataset of 79 million logs from 65,276 women with ground truth pregnancy test data, we show that our predicted pregnancy probabilities meaningfully stratify women: women in the top 10% of predicted probabilities have a 88% chance of becoming pregnant over 6 menstrual cycles, as compared to a 30% chance for women in the bottom 10%. We develop an intuitive technique for extracting interpretable time trends from our deep learning models, and show these trends are consistent with previous fertility research. Our findings illustrate that women's health tracking data offers potential for predicting pregnancy on a broader population; we conclude by discussing the steps needed to fulfill this potential.