Advancing Knowledge Tracing by Exploring Follow-up Performance Trends

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS), such as Massive Open Online Courses, offer new opportunities for human learning. At the core of such systems, knowledge tracing (KT) predicts students' future performance by analyzing their historical learning activities, enabling an accurate evaluation of students' knowledge states over time. We show that existing KT methods often encounter correlation conflicts when analyzing the relationships between historical learning sequences and future performance. To address such conflicts, we propose to extract so-called Follow-up Performance Trends (FPTs) from historical ITS data and to incorporate them into KT. We propose a method called Forward-Looking Knowledge Tracing (FINER) that combines historical learning sequences with FPTs to enhance student performance prediction accuracy. FINER constructs learning patterns that facilitate the retrieval of FPTs from historical ITS data in linear time; FINER includes a novel similarity-aware attention mechanism that aggregates FPTs based on both frequency and contextual similarity; and FINER offers means of combining FPTs and historical learning sequences to enable more accurate prediction of student future performance. Experiments on six real-world datasets show that FINER can outperform ten state-of-the-art KT methods, increasing accuracy by 8.74% to 84.85%.

MH-GIN: Multi-scale Heterogeneous Graph-based Imputation Network for AIS Data (Extended Version)

Location-tracking data from the Automatic Identification System, much of which is publicly available, plays a key role in a range of maritime safety and monitoring applications. However, the data suffers from missing values that hamper downstream applications. Imputing the missing values is challenging because the values of different heterogeneous attributes are updated at diverse rates, resulting in the occurrence of multi-scale dependencies among attributes. Existing imputation methods that assume similar update rates across attributes are unable to capture and exploit such dependencies, limiting their imputation accuracy. We propose MH-GIN, a Multi-scale Heterogeneous Graph-based Imputation Network that aims improve imputation accuracy by capturing multi-scale dependencies. Specifically, MH-GIN first extracts multi-scale temporal features for each attribute while preserving their intrinsic heterogeneous characteristics. Then, it constructs a multi-scale heterogeneous graph to explicitly model dependencies between heterogeneous attributes to enable more accurate imputation of missing values through graph propagation. Experimental results on two real-world datasets find that MH-GIN is capable of an average 57% reduction in imputation errors compared to state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining computational efficiency. The source code and implementation details of MH-GIN are publicly available https://github.com/hyLiu1994/MH-GIN.