Great GATsBi: Hybrid, Multimodal, Trajectory Forecasting for Bicycles using Anticipation Mechanism

Accurate prediction of road user movement is increasingly required by many applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to autonomous driving, and especially crucial for road safety. Even though most traffic accident fatalities account to bicycles, they have received little attention, as previous work focused mainly on pedestrians and motorized vehicles. In this work, we present the Great GATsBi, a domain-knowledge-based, hybrid, multimodal trajectory prediction framework for bicycles. The model incorporates both physics-based modeling (inspired by motorized vehicles) and social-based modeling (inspired by pedestrian movements) to explicitly account for the dual nature of bicycle movement. The social interactions are modeled with a graph attention network, and include decayed historical, but also anticipated, future trajectory data of a bicycles neighborhood, following recent insights from psychological and social studies. The results indicate that the proposed ensemble of physics models -- performing well in the short-term predictions -- and social models -- performing well in the long-term predictions -- exceeds state-of-the-art performance. We also conducted a controlled mass-cycling experiment to demonstrate the framework's performance when forecasting bicycle trajectories and modeling social interactions with road users.

Hierarchical confusion matrix for classification performance evaluation

In this work we propose a novel concept of a hierarchical confusion matrix, opening the door for popular confusion matrix based (flat) evaluation measures from binary classification problems, while considering the peculiarities of hierarchical classification problems. We develop the concept to a generalized form and prove its applicability to all types of hierarchical classification problems including directed acyclic graphs, multi path labelling, and non mandatory leaf node prediction. Finally, we use measures based on the novel confusion matrix to evaluate models within a benchmark for three real world hierarchical classification applications and compare the results to established evaluation measures. The results outline the reasonability of this approach and its usefulness to evaluate hierarchical classification problems. The implementation of hierarchical confusion matrix is available on GitHub.