EarthShift: a benchmark for measuring robustness to real-world distribution shifts in Earth observation

Current Earth observation benchmarks focus on measuring performance on diverse tasks and applications, typically measuring generalization in-distribution. But when models are deployed, they must generalize to myriad out-of-distribution scenarios, such as new time periods, geographies, scales, and sensors. We introduce EarthShift: the first public testbed for benchmarking robustness across multiple realistic distribution shifts encountered in remote sensing. EarthShift enables users to measure distributional robustness by comparing performance in- and out-of-distribution using datasets from paired datasets from different sources, temporal windows, geographic locations, and sensors. Our experiments on 8 geospatial foundation models (GFMs) and 11 tasks covering 5 shift types show that GFMs consistently perform 15-20% worse out-of-distribution on average regardless of model architecture, size, pre-training or fine-tuning strategy. We show that GFM robustness is similar to that of generic vision foundation models, and even fully-supervised models. This highlights a need for future research to strive for improvements in distributional robustness, not just performance, which can be benchmarked using EarthShift. We release our code and datasets to provide a testbed to guide future work to create foundation models that are robust and reliable in real-world applications. Code and data for EarthShift are available at: https://earthshift.github.io

A Multi-tiered Human-in-the-loop Approach for Interactive School Mapping Using Earth Observation and Machine Learning

This paper presents a multi-tiered human-in-the-loop framework for interactive school mapping designed to improve the accuracy and completeness of educational facility records, particularly in developing regions where such data may be scarce and infrequently updated. The first tier involves a machine learning based analysis of population density, land cover, and existing infrastructure compared with known school locations. The first tier identifies potential gaps and "mislabelled" schools. In subsequent tiers, medium-resolution satellite imagery (Sentinel-2) is investigated to pinpoint regions with a high likelihood of school presence, followed by the application of very high-resolution (VHR) imagery and deep learning models to generate detailed candidate locations for schools within these prioritised areas. The medium-resolution approach was later removed due to insignificant improvements. The medium and VHR resolution models build upon global pre-trained steps to improve generalisation. A key component of the proposed approach is an interactive interface to allow human operators to iteratively review, validate, and refine the mapping results. Preliminary evaluations indicate that the multi-tiered strategy provides a scalable and cost-effective solution for educational infrastructure mapping to support planning and resource allocation.

Leveraging Deep Learning for Physical Model Bias of Global Air Quality Estimates

Air pollution is the world's largest environmental risk factor for human disease and premature death, resulting in more than 6 million permature deaths in 2019. Currently, there is still a challenge to model one of the most important air pollutants, surface ozone, particularly at scales relevant for human health impacts, with the drivers of global ozone trends at these scales largely unknown, limiting the practical use of physics-based models. We employ a 2D Convolutional Neural Network based architecture that estimate surface ozone MOMO-Chem model residuals, referred to as model bias. We demonstrate the potential of this technique in North America and Europe, highlighting its ability better to capture physical model residuals compared to a traditional machine learning method. We assess the impact of incorporating land use information from high-resolution satellite imagery to improve model estimates. Importantly, we discuss how our results can improve our scientific understanding of the factors impacting ozone bias at urban scales that can be used to improve environmental policy.

Uncertainty Quantification for Surface Ozone Emulators using Deep Learning

Air pollution is a global hazard, and as of 2023, 94\% of the world's population is exposed to unsafe pollution levels. Surface Ozone (O3), an important pollutant, and the drivers of its trends are difficult to model, and traditional physics-based models fall short in their practical use for scales relevant to human-health impacts. Deep Learning-based emulators have shown promise in capturing complex climate patterns, but overall lack the interpretability necessary to support critical decision making for policy changes and public health measures. We implement an uncertainty-aware U-Net architecture to predict the Multi-mOdel Multi-cOnstituent Chemical data assimilation (MOMO-Chem) model's surface ozone residuals (bias) using Bayesian and quantile regression methods. We demonstrate the capability of our techniques in regional estimation of bias in North America and Europe for June 2019. We highlight the uncertainty quantification (UQ) scores between our two UQ methodologies and discern which ground stations are optimal and sub-optimal candidates for MOMO-Chem bias correction, and evaluate the impact of land-use information in surface ozone residual modeling.

Predicting Internet Connectivity in Schools: A Feasibility Study Leveraging Multi-modal Data and Location Encoders in Low-Resource Settings

Internet connectivity in schools is critical to provide students with the digital literary skills necessary to compete in modern economies. In order for governments to effectively implement digital infrastructure development in schools, accurate internet connectivity information is required. However, traditional survey-based methods can exceed the financial and capacity limits of governments. Open-source Earth Observation (EO) datasets have unlocked our ability to observe and understand socio-economic conditions on Earth from space, and in combination with Machine Learning (ML), can provide the tools to circumvent costly ground-based survey methods to support infrastructure development. In this paper, we present our work on school internet connectivity prediction using EO and ML. We detail the creation of our multi-modal, freely-available satellite imagery and survey information dataset, leverage the latest geographically-aware location encoders, and introduce the first results of using the new European Space Agency phi-lab geographically-aware foundational model to predict internet connectivity in Botswana and Rwanda. We find that ML with EO and ground-based auxiliary data yields the best performance in both countries, for accuracy, F1 score, and False Positive rates, and highlight the challenges of internet connectivity prediction from space with a case study in Kigali, Rwanda. Our work showcases a practical approach to support data-driven digital infrastructure development in low-resource settings, leveraging freely available information, and provide cleaned and labelled datasets for future studies to the community through a unique collaboration between UNICEF and the European Space Agency phi-lab.