Leveraging Deep Learning for Physical Model Bias of Global Air Quality Estimates

Air pollution is the world's largest environmental risk factor for human disease and premature death, resulting in more than 6 million permature deaths in 2019. Currently, there is still a challenge to model one of the most important air pollutants, surface ozone, particularly at scales relevant for human health impacts, with the drivers of global ozone trends at these scales largely unknown, limiting the practical use of physics-based models. We employ a 2D Convolutional Neural Network based architecture that estimate surface ozone MOMO-Chem model residuals, referred to as model bias. We demonstrate the potential of this technique in North America and Europe, highlighting its ability better to capture physical model residuals compared to a traditional machine learning method. We assess the impact of incorporating land use information from high-resolution satellite imagery to improve model estimates. Importantly, we discuss how our results can improve our scientific understanding of the factors impacting ozone bias at urban scales that can be used to improve environmental policy.

Uncertainty Quantification for Surface Ozone Emulators using Deep Learning

Air pollution is a global hazard, and as of 2023, 94\% of the world's population is exposed to unsafe pollution levels. Surface Ozone (O3), an important pollutant, and the drivers of its trends are difficult to model, and traditional physics-based models fall short in their practical use for scales relevant to human-health impacts. Deep Learning-based emulators have shown promise in capturing complex climate patterns, but overall lack the interpretability necessary to support critical decision making for policy changes and public health measures. We implement an uncertainty-aware U-Net architecture to predict the Multi-mOdel Multi-cOnstituent Chemical data assimilation (MOMO-Chem) model's surface ozone residuals (bias) using Bayesian and quantile regression methods. We demonstrate the capability of our techniques in regional estimation of bias in North America and Europe for June 2019. We highlight the uncertainty quantification (UQ) scores between our two UQ methodologies and discern which ground stations are optimal and sub-optimal candidates for MOMO-Chem bias correction, and evaluate the impact of land-use information in surface ozone residual modeling.

Iterative Subsampling in Solution Path Clustering of Noisy Big Data

We develop an iterative subsampling approach to improve the computational efficiency of our previous work on solution path clustering (SPC). The SPC method achieves clustering by concave regularization on the pairwise distances between cluster centers. This clustering method has the important capability to recognize noise and to provide a short path of clustering solutions; however, it is not sufficiently fast for big datasets. Thus, we propose a method that iterates between clustering a small subsample of the full data and sequentially assigning the other data points to attain orders of magnitude of computational savings. The new method preserves the ability to isolate noise, includes a solution selection mechanism that ultimately provides one clustering solution with an estimated number of clusters, and is shown to be able to extract small tight clusters from noisy data. The method's relatively minor losses in accuracy are demonstrated through simulation studies, and its ability to handle large datasets is illustrated through applications to gene expression datasets. An R package, SPClustering, for the SPC method with iterative subsampling is available at http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~zhou/Software.html.

Solution Path Clustering with Adaptive Concave Penalty

Fast accumulation of large amounts of complex data has created a need for more sophisticated statistical methodologies to discover interesting patterns and better extract information from these data. The large scale of the data often results in challenging high-dimensional estimation problems where only a minority of the data shows specific grouping patterns. To address these emerging challenges, we develop a new clustering methodology that introduces the idea of a regularization path into unsupervised learning. A regularization path for a clustering problem is created by varying the degree of sparsity constraint that is imposed on the differences between objects via the minimax concave penalty with adaptive tuning parameters. Instead of providing a single solution represented by a cluster assignment for each object, the method produces a short sequence of solutions that determines not only the cluster assignment but also a corresponding number of clusters for each solution. The optimization of the penalized loss function is carried out through an MM algorithm with block coordinate descent. The advantages of this clustering algorithm compared to other existing methods are as follows: it does not require the input of the number of clusters; it is capable of simultaneously separating irrelevant or noisy observations that show no grouping pattern, which can greatly improve data interpretation; it is a general methodology that can be applied to many clustering problems. We test this method on various simulated datasets and on gene expression data, where it shows better or competitive performance compared against several clustering methods.