Real-Time Recurrent Reinforcement Learning

Recent advances in reinforcement learning, for partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), rely on the biologically implausible backpropagation through time algorithm (BPTT) to perform gradient-descent optimisation. In this paper we propose a novel reinforcement learning algorithm that makes use of random feedback local online learning (RFLO), a biologically plausible approximation of realtime recurrent learning (RTRL) to compute the gradients of the parameters of a recurrent neural network in an online manner. By combining it with TD($\lambda$), a variant of temporaldifference reinforcement learning with eligibility traces, we create a biologically plausible, recurrent actor-critic algorithm, capable of solving discrete and continuous control tasks in POMDPs. We compare BPTT, RTRL and RFLO as well as different network architectures, and find that RFLO can perform just as well as RTRL while exceeding even BPTT in terms of complexity. The proposed method, called real-time recurrent reinforcement learning (RTRRL), serves as a model of learning in biological neural networks mimicking reward pathways in the mammalian brain.

Prediction of Tourism Flow with Sparse Geolocation Data

Modern tourism in the 21st century is facing numerous challenges. Among these the rapidly growing number of tourists visiting space-limited regions like historical cities, museums and bottlenecks such as bridges is one of the biggest. In this context, a proper and accurate prediction of tourism volume and tourism flow within a certain area is important and critical for visitor management tasks such as sustainable treatment of the environment and prevention of overcrowding. Static flow control methods like conventional low-level controllers or limiting access to overcrowded venues could not solve the problem yet. In this paper, we empirically evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art deep-learning methods such as RNNs, GNNs, and Transformers as well as the classic statistical ARIMA method. Granular limited data supplied by a tourism region is extended by exogenous data such as geolocation trajectories of individual tourists, weather and holidays. In the field of visitor flow prediction with sparse data, we are thereby capable of increasing the accuracy of our predictions, incorporating modern input feature handling as well as mapping geolocation data on top of discrete POI data.

On the Benefits of Biophysical Synapses

The approximation capability of ANNs and their RNN instantiations, is strongly correlated with the number of parameters packed into these networks. However, the complexity barrier for human understanding, is arguably related to the number of neurons and synapses in the networks, and to the associated nonlinear transformations. In this paper we show that the use of biophysical synapses, as found in LTCs, have two main benefits. First, they allow to pack more parameters for a given number of neurons and synapses. Second, they allow to formulate the nonlinear-network transformation, as a linear system with state-dependent coefficients. Both increase interpretability, as for a given task, they allow to learn a system linear in its input features, that is smaller in size compared to the state of the art. We substantiate the above claims on various time-series prediction tasks, but we believe that our results are applicable to any feedforward or recurrent ANN.

Deep-Learning vs Regression: Prediction of Tourism Flow with Limited Data

Modern tourism in the 21st century is facing numerous challenges. One of these challenges is the rapidly growing number of tourists in space limited regions such as historical city centers, museums or geographical bottlenecks like narrow valleys. In this context, a proper and accurate prediction of tourism volume and tourism flow within a certain area is important and critical for visitor management tasks such as visitor flow control and prevention of overcrowding. Static flow control methods like limiting access to hotspots or using conventional low level controllers could not solve the problem yet. In this paper, we empirically evaluate the performance of several state-of-the-art deep-learning methods in the field of visitor flow prediction with limited data by using available granular data supplied by a tourism region and comparing the results to ARIMA, a classical statistical method. Our results show that deep-learning models yield better predictions compared to the ARIMA method, while both featuring faster inference times and being able to incorporate additional input features.