WristCompass: Kinematic Coupling as a Learnable Visual Concept for Ego-Camera Orientation

Recovering ego-camera orientation from manipulation video is a prerequisite for disentangling hand motion from camera motion, a key step in imitation learning from egocentric demonstrations. The obvious approach, inferring orientation from scene geometry, fails when hands occlude the frame: VGGT, a 1B-parameter scene reconstruction model, scores worse than a constant predictor on the TACO benchmark. We identify an alternative visual concept that is present precisely when scene geometry is absent: kinematic coupling dynamics, the structured physical relationship between wrist motion and camera orientation imposed by the arm-shoulder-head chain. We find that this concept is compact (4D inter-wrist features outperform 126D full hand keypoints), temporal (requiring a GRU over short windows rather than per-frame retrieval), and physically grounded (transferring zero-shot across datasets because it is rooted in anatomy rather than scene appearance). Trained only on tabletop manipulation, WristCompass transfers zero-shot to Epic Kitchens cooking video, achieving 14.3$^\circ$ median geodesic error and approaching the performance of a 1B-parameter scene model at 200K GRU parameters.

Modeling and Predicting Multi-Turn Answer Instability in Large Language Models

As large language models (LLMs) are adopted in an increasingly wide range of applications, user-model interactions have grown in both frequency and scale. Consequently, research has focused on evaluating the robustness of LLMs, an essential quality for real-world tasks. In this paper, we employ simple multi-turn follow-up prompts to evaluate models' answer changes, model accuracy dynamics across turns with Markov chains, and examine whether linear probes can predict these changes. Our results show significant vulnerabilities in LLM robustness: a simple "Think again" prompt led to an approximate 10% accuracy drop for Gemini 1.5 Flash over nine turns, while combining this prompt with a semantically equivalent reworded question caused a 7.5% drop for Claude 3.5 Haiku. Additionally, we find that model accuracy across turns can be effectively modeled using Markov chains, enabling the prediction of accuracy probabilities over time. This allows for estimation of the model's stationary (long-run) accuracy, which we find to be on average approximately 8% lower than its first-turn accuracy for Gemini 1.5 Flash. Our results from a model's hidden states also reveal evidence that linear probes can help predict future answer changes. Together, these results establish stationary accuracy as a principled robustness metric for interactive settings and expose the fragility of models under repeated questioning. Addressing this instability will be essential for deploying LLMs in high-stakes and interactive settings where consistent reasoning is as important as initial accuracy.