The Hidden Puppet Master: Predicting Human Belief Change in Manipulative LLM Dialogues

As users increasingly turn to LLMs for practical and personal advice, they become vulnerable to subtle steering toward hidden incentives misaligned with their own interests. While existing NLP research has benchmarked manipulation detection, these efforts often rely on simulated debates and remain fundamentally decoupled from actual human belief shifts in real-world scenarios. We introduce PUPPET, a theoretical taxonomy and resource that bridges this gap by focusing on the moral direction of hidden incentives in everyday, advice-giving contexts. We provide an evaluation dataset of N=1,035 human-LLM interactions, where we measure users' belief shifts. Our analysis reveals a critical disconnect in current safety paradigms: while models can be trained to detect manipulative strategies, they do not correlate with the magnitude of resulting belief change. As such, we define the task of belief shift prediction and show that while state-of-the-art LLMs achieve moderate correlation (r=0.3-0.5), they systematically underestimate the intensity of human belief susceptibility. This work establishes a theoretically grounded and behaviorally validated foundation for AI social safety efforts by studying incentive-driven manipulation in LLMs during everyday, practical user queries.

The Hidden Puppet Master: A Theoretical and Real-World Account of Emotional Manipulation in LLMs

As users increasingly turn to LLMs for practical and personal advice, they become vulnerable to being subtly steered toward hidden incentives misaligned with their own interests. Prior works have benchmarked persuasion and manipulation detection, but these efforts rely on simulated or debate-style settings, remain uncorrelated with real human belief shifts, and overlook a critical dimension: the morality of hidden incentives driving the manipulation. We introduce PUPPET, a theoretical taxonomy of personalized emotional manipulation in LLM-human dialogues that centers around incentive morality, and conduct a human study with N=1,035 participants across realistic everyday queries, varying personalization and incentive direction (harmful versus prosocial). We find that harmful hidden incentives produce significantly larger belief shifts than prosocial ones. Finally, we benchmark LLMs on the task of belief prediction, finding that models exhibit moderate predictive ability of belief change based on conversational contexts (r=0.3 - 0.5), but they also systematically underestimate the magnitude of belief shift. Together, this work establishes a theoretically grounded and behaviorally validated foundation for studying, and ultimately combatting, incentive-driven manipulation in LLMs during everyday, practical user queries.

Applications of Machine Learning in Pharmacogenomics: Clustering Plasma Concentration-Time Curves

Pharmaceutical researchers are continually searching for techniques to improve both drug development processes and patient outcomes. An area of recent interest is the potential for machine learning applications within pharmacology. One such application not yet given close study is the unsupervised clustering of plasma concentration-time curves, hereafter, pharmacokinetic (PK) curves. This can be done by treating a PK curve as a time series object and subsequently utilizing the extensive body of research related to the clustering of time series data objects. In this paper, we introduce hierarchical clustering within the context of clustering PK curves and find it to be effective at identifying similar-shaped PK curves and informative for understanding patterns of PK curves via its dendrogram data visualization. We also examine many dissimilarity measures between time series objects to identify Euclidean distance as generally most appropriate for clustering PK curves. We further show that dynamic time warping, Fr\'echet, and structure-based measures of dissimilarity like correlation may produce unexpected results. Finally, we apply these methods to a dataset of 250 PK curves as an illustrative case study to demonstrate how the clustering of PK curves can be used as a descriptive tool for summarizing and visualizing complex PK data, which may enhance the study of pharmacogenomics in the context of precision medicine.