Multi-task Envisioning Transformer-based Autoencoder for Corporate Credit Rating Migration Early Prediction

Corporate credit ratings issued by third-party rating agencies are quantified assessments of a company's creditworthiness. Credit Ratings highly correlate to the likelihood of a company defaulting on its debt obligations. These ratings play critical roles in investment decision-making as one of the key risk factors. They are also central to the regulatory framework such as BASEL II in calculating necessary capital for financial institutions. Being able to predict rating changes will greatly benefit both investors and regulators alike. In this paper, we consider the corporate credit rating migration early prediction problem, which predicts the credit rating of an issuer will be upgraded, unchanged, or downgraded after 12 months based on its latest financial reporting information at the time. We investigate the effectiveness of different standard machine learning algorithms and conclude these models deliver inferior performance. As part of our contribution, we propose a new Multi-task Envisioning Transformer-based Autoencoder (META) model to tackle this challenging problem. META consists of Positional Encoding, Transformer-based Autoencoder, and Multi-task Prediction to learn effective representations for both migration prediction and rating prediction. This enables META to better explore the historical data in the training stage for one-year later prediction. Experimental results show that META outperforms all baseline models.

Label-invariant Augmentation for Semi-Supervised Graph Classification

Recently, contrastiveness-based augmentation surges a new climax in the computer vision domain, where some operations, including rotation, crop, and flip, combined with dedicated algorithms, dramatically increase the model generalization and robustness. Following this trend, some pioneering attempts employ the similar idea to graph data. Nevertheless, unlike images, it is much more difficult to design reasonable augmentations without changing the nature of graphs. Although exciting, the current graph contrastive learning does not achieve as promising performance as visual contrastive learning. We conjecture the current performance of graph contrastive learning might be limited by the violation of the label-invariant augmentation assumption. In light of this, we propose a label-invariant augmentation for graph-structured data to address this challenge. Different from the node/edge modification and subgraph extraction, we conduct the augmentation in the representation space and generate the augmented samples in the most difficult direction while keeping the label of augmented data the same as the original samples. In the semi-supervised scenario, we demonstrate our proposed method outperforms the classical graph neural network based methods and recent graph contrastive learning on eight benchmark graph-structured data, followed by several in-depth experiments to further explore the label-invariant augmentation in several aspects.