A Scalable and Transferable Time Series Prediction Framework for Demand Forecasting

Time series forecasting is one of the most essential and ubiquitous tasks in many business problems, including demand forecasting and logistics optimization. Traditional time series forecasting methods, however, have resulted in small models with limited expressive power because they have difficulty in scaling their model size up while maintaining high accuracy. In this paper, we propose Forecasting orchestra (Forchestra), a simple but powerful framework capable of accurately predicting future demand for a diverse range of items. We empirically demonstrate that the model size is scalable to up to 0.8 billion parameters. The proposed method not only outperforms existing forecasting models with a significant margin, but it could generalize well to unseen data points when evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on downstream datasets. Last but not least, we present extensive qualitative and quantitative studies to analyze how the proposed model outperforms baseline models and differs from conventional approaches. The original paper was presented as a full paper at ICDM 2022 and is available at: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10027662.

Cascaded Beam Search: Plug-and-Play Terminology-Forcing For Neural Machine Translation

This paper presents a plug-and-play approach for translation with terminology constraints. Terminology constraints are an important aspect of many modern translation pipelines. In both specialized domains and newly emerging domains (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), accurate translation of technical terms is crucial. Recent approaches often train models to copy terminologies from the input into the output sentence by feeding the target terminology along with the input. But this requires expensive training whenever the underlying language model is changed or the system should specialize to a new domain. We propose Cascade Beam Search, a plug-and-play terminology-forcing approach that requires no training. Cascade Beam Search has two parts: 1) logit manipulation to increase the probability of target terminologies and 2) a cascading beam setup based on grid beam search, where beams are grouped by the number of terminologies they contain. We evaluate the performance of our approach by competing against the top submissions of the WMT21 terminology translation task. Our plug-and-play approach performs on par with the winning submissions without using a domain-specific language model and with no additional training.