Pricing the Risk of Runtime Compression: Anytime-Valid Admission and a Served-Output Law for Compressed Serving State

Runtime compression of serving state trades quality for capacity with no priced guarantee: systems adapt precision on load signals with no soundness statement, and certified approaches budget request-level risk by a union bound over a pre-declared event count. We show the union budget exhausts on every long request in a production serving stack (100% of requests), and replace it with an anytime-valid, physically accounted ledger whose bound holds at every one of 352,333 admission calls on live traffic and which, in a pre-registered held-out confirmatory round, halves the exact-fallback rate at matched risk (0.30 -> 0.14) -- coverage is bought at a price the account states. We then price the remaining distance from the certified witness to what a user experiences: a machine-checked design law (TV <= tanh(a_q w_thr)) turns the served-TV target into a threshold knob, and a three-layer audit of its instantiation -- an operator-norm query envelope measured 1.5x from tight, a measured-ellipsoid replacement for the Cauchy-Schwarz ball that buys nothing (0.89x, held-out sound), and the gate's operating point (~700x) -- localizes the entire 1064x gap to the operating point, a price the law now states rather than an unknown. A priced bound is worth nothing on a request one has not seen, so the third link is the quantifier: exchangeable extrapolation across 80 serving histories replaces binary conformal prediction's vacuous certificates with order-statistic bounds that discriminate (0.41 against 0.51 calibration risk). All probabilistic kernels are Lean 4-checked (228 exported theorems, no sorry); which object deserves this machinery at all is settled empirically in a companion paper that adjudicates -- and rejects -- the natural alternative of certifying routing. What ships is an account: risk you can spend, a gap you can read off a law, and a bound that survives the request you have not seen.

Runtime Observability for Heterogeneous Attention Memory

Modern models no longer keep a plain KV cache: latent caches, learned sparse selectors and recurrent states each carry the model's memory in a different form, and each fails differently under compression. We give a runtime observability contract that covers all four memory classes with three operators, instantiate it on six model configurations across five architecture families, and compose the per-stage bounds into an executable request-level risk ledger. Contracts carry their error metric as a type -- composition is only defined when metrics match, and this check rejected our own first composed chain; the repaired chain crosses metrics through two proved bridges, and whatever no formal system can certify is measured instead, dropping the composed tier to empirical automatically: every claim is certified, partially certified, or empirical, composition inherits the weakest tier, and the tier is decided by the machine. Replayed over $12.4$M entry reads and run under eight-way concurrency with per-request budgets and fail-closed identity attribution, the ledger quantifies the honest trade-off on today's witness and holds its risk budget with zero violations. A fused always-on probe observes a declared one-layer subset under CUDA graphs inside the serving noise floor. Applied to a served DeepSeek-V4 stack with a packed compressed-KV prototype, the same machinery localizes a silent corruption to a precise structural boundary -- exact in the eviction-free, identity-isolated regime, with every observed failure in an eviction or slot-reuse regime -- through a machine-adjudicated discrimination campaign whose calculus rejected two of our own confounded inferences along the way. All artifacts, guards, and the Lean development are released at https://github.com/metask-ai/witprobe-attention-memory; every number in this paper regenerates from the shipped artifacts by one command.

WitCert: Sound Runtime Risk Observability and Gating for KV-Cache Quantization

KV-cache quantization is validated today by offline benchmark averages; a deployed system cannot tell whether compression is damaging the request it is serving right now. We give it a provably sound runtime meter, a "DTrace for KV quantization": a per-(layer, head, step) upper bound on the total variation between exact and compressed attention. The meter has two tiers: a deterministic band-norm-witness bound, sound for any cache-preserving black-box quantizer and for any query (adaptive-safe, worst-case Cauchy-Schwarz plus RoPE band-unitarity), and a tighter probabilistic certificate for a controlled subtractively-dithered INT8 quantizer under an explicit request-level failure budget (stated for non-adaptive queries; core theorems machine-checked in Lean 4). Three results. Observability: the meter enters SGLang through an environment-guarded patch, and any scheme registered as one tensor function is measured in live serving. Repair: meter-driven gating, risk-ranked where the witness is saturated and certified where it is informative, empirically restores the quality floor at benchmark scale. For example, raw-cast FP8 improves from 22.8 back to 79.7 on hard RULER tasks, with the difference from uncompressed bounded at [+0.0, +0.8] by a paired test. Analysis: aggressive schemes survive on cross-layer error cancellation, not per-step fidelity. In a 28-layer sweep, no single layer's pollution alone loses anything (0/28), and the certified INT8 cache serves 1.88 times more KV tokens at the same memory in SGLang.