Truthfulness of Calibration Measures

We initiate the study of the truthfulness of calibration measures in sequential prediction. A calibration measure is said to be truthful if the forecaster (approximately) minimizes the expected penalty by predicting the conditional expectation of the next outcome, given the prior distribution of outcomes. Truthfulness is an important property of calibration measures, ensuring that the forecaster is not incentivized to exploit the system with deliberate poor forecasts. This makes it an essential desideratum for calibration measures, alongside typical requirements, such as soundness and completeness. We conduct a taxonomy of existing calibration measures and their truthfulness. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that all of them are far from being truthful. That is, under existing calibration measures, there are simple distributions on which a polylogarithmic (or even zero) penalty is achievable, while truthful prediction leads to a polynomial penalty. Our main contribution is the introduction of a new calibration measure termed the Subsampled Smooth Calibration Error (SSCE) under which truthful prediction is optimal up to a constant multiplicative factor.

Stacking as Accelerated Gradient Descent

Stacking, a heuristic technique for training deep residual networks by progressively increasing the number of layers and initializing new layers by copying parameters from older layers, has proven quite successful in improving the efficiency of training deep neural networks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical explanation for the efficacy of stacking: viz., stacking implements a form of Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent. The theory also covers simpler models such as the additive ensembles constructed in boosting methods, and provides an explanation for a similar widely-used practical heuristic for initializing the new classifier in each round of boosting. We also prove that for certain deep linear residual networks, stacking does provide accelerated training, via a new potential function analysis of the Nesterov's accelerated gradient method which allows errors in updates. We conduct proof-of-concept experiments to validate our theory as well.

The Sample Complexity of Multi-Distribution Learning for VC Classes

Multi-distribution learning is a natural generalization of PAC learning to settings with multiple data distributions. There remains a significant gap between the known upper and lower bounds for PAC-learnable classes. In particular, though we understand the sample complexity of learning a VC dimension d class on $k$ distributions to be $O(\epsilon^{-2} \ln(k)(d + k) + \min\{\epsilon^{-1} dk, \epsilon^{-4} \ln(k) d\})$, the best lower bound is $\Omega(\epsilon^{-2}(d + k \ln(k)))$. We discuss recent progress on this problem and some hurdles that are fundamental to the use of game dynamics in statistical learning.

A Unifying Perspective on Multi-Calibration: Unleashing Game Dynamics for Multi-Objective Learning

We provide a unifying framework for the design and analysis of multi-calibrated and moment-multi-calibrated predictors. Placing the multi-calibration problem in the general setting of \emph{multi-objective learning} -- where learning guarantees must hold simultaneously over a set of distributions and loss functions -- we exploit connections to game dynamics to obtain state-of-the-art guarantees for a diverse set of multi-calibration learning problems. In addition to shedding light on existing multi-calibration guarantees, and greatly simplifying their analysis, our approach yields a $1/\epsilon^2$ improvement in the number of oracle calls compared to the state-of-the-art algorithm of Jung et al. 2021 for learning deterministic moment-calibrated predictors and an exponential improvement in $k$ compared to the state-of-the-art algorithm of Gopalan et al. 2022 for learning a $k$-class multi-calibrated predictor. Beyond multi-calibration, we use these game dynamics to address existing and emerging considerations in the study of group fairness and multi-distribution learning.

On-Demand Sampling: Learning Optimally from Multiple Distributions

Social and real-world considerations such as robustness, fairness, social welfare and multi-agent tradeoffs have given rise to multi-distribution learning paradigms, such as collaborative, group distributionally robust, and fair federated learning. In each of these settings, a learner seeks to minimize its worst-case loss over a set of $n$ predefined distributions, while using as few samples as possible. In this paper, we establish the optimal sample complexity of these learning paradigms and give algorithms that meet this sample complexity. Importantly, our sample complexity bounds exceed that of the sample complexity of learning a single distribution only by an additive factor of $n \log(n) / \epsilon^2$. These improve upon the best known sample complexity of agnostic federated learning by Mohri et al. by a multiplicative factor of $n$, the sample complexity of collaborative learning by Nguyen and Zakynthinou by a multiplicative factor $\log n / \epsilon^3$, and give the first sample complexity bounds for the group DRO objective of Sagawa et al. To achieve optimal sample complexity, our algorithms learn to sample and learn from distributions on demand. Our algorithm design and analysis is enabled by our extensions of stochastic optimization techniques for solving stochastic zero-sum games. In particular, we contribute variants of Stochastic Mirror Descent that can trade off between players' access to cheap one-off samples or more expensive reusable ones.

ERMAS: Becoming Robust to Reward Function Sim-to-Real Gaps in Multi-Agent Simulations

Multi-agent simulations provide a scalable environment for learning policies that interact with rational agents. However, such policies may fail to generalize to the real-world where agents may differ from simulated counterparts due to unmodeled irrationality and misspecified reward functions. We introduce Epsilon-Robust Multi-Agent Simulation (ERMAS), a robust optimization framework for learning AI policies that are robust to such multiagent sim-to-real gaps. While existing notions of multi-agent robustness concern perturbations in the actions of agents, we address a novel robustness objective concerning perturbations in the reward functions of agents. ERMAS provides this robustness by anticipating suboptimal behaviors from other agents, formalized as the worst-case epsilon-equilibrium. We show empirically that ERMAS yields robust policies for repeated bimatrix games and optimal taxation problems in economic simulations. In particular, in the two-level RL problem posed by the AI Economist (Zheng et al., 2020) ERMAS learns tax policies that are robust to changes in agent risk aversion, improving social welfare by up to 15% in complex spatiotemporal simulations.

A unified Neural Network Approach to E-CommerceRelevance Learning

Result relevance scoring is critical to e-commerce search user experience. Traditional information retrieval methods focus on keyword matching and hand-crafted or counting-based numeric features, with limited understanding of item semantic relevance. We describe a highly-scalable feed-forward neural model to provide relevance score for (query, item) pairs, using only user query and item title as features, and both user click feedback as well as limited human ratings as labels. Several general enhancements were applied to further optimize eval/test metrics, including Siamese pairwise architecture, random batch negative co-training, and point-wise fine-tuning. We found significant improvement over GBDT baseline as well as several off-the-shelf deep-learning baselines on an independently constructed ratings dataset. The GBDT model relies on 10 times more features. We also present metrics for select subset combinations of techniques mentioned above.

Active Learning under Label Shift

Distribution shift poses a challenge for active data collection in the real world. We address the problem of active learning under label shift and propose ALLS, the first framework for active learning under label shift. ALLS builds on label shift estimation techniques to correct for label shift with a balance of importance weighting and class-balanced sampling. We show a bias-variance trade-off between these two techniques and prove error and sample complexity bounds for a disagreement-based algorithm under ALLS. Experiments across a range of label shift settings demonstrate ALLS consistently improves performance, often reducing sample complexity by more than half an order of magnitude. Ablation studies corroborate the bias-variance trade-off revealed by our theory

Graph Neural Networks for Social Recommendation

In recent years, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), which can naturally integrate node information and topological structure, have been demonstrated to be powerful in learning on graph data. These advantages of GNNs provide great potential to advance social recommendation since data in social recommender systems can be represented as user-user social graph and user-item graph; and learning latent factors of users and items is the key. However, building social recommender systems based on GNNs faces challenges. For example, the user-item graph encodes both interactions and their associated opinions; social relations have heterogeneous strengths; users involve in two graphs (e.g., the user-user social graph and the user-item graph). To address the three aforementioned challenges simultaneously, in this paper, we present a novel graph neural network framework (GraphRec) for social recommendations. In particular, we provide a principled approach to jointly capture interactions and opinions in the user-item graph and propose the framework GraphRec, which coherently models two graphs and heterogeneous strengths. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework GraphRec.

Streaming Graph Neural Networks

Graphs are essential representations of many real-world data such as social networks. Recent years have witnessed the increasing efforts made to extend the neural network models to graph-structured data. These methods, which are usually known as the graph neural networks, have been applied to advance many graphs related tasks such as reasoning dynamics of the physical system, graph classification, and node classification. Most of the existing graph neural network models have been designed for static graphs, while many real-world graphs are inherently dynamic. For example, social networks are naturally evolving as new users joining and new relations being created. Current graph neural network models cannot utilize the dynamic information in dynamic graphs. However, the dynamic information has been proven to enhance the performance of many graph analytic tasks such as community detection and link prediction. Hence, it is necessary to design dedicated graph neural networks for dynamic graphs. In this paper, we propose DGNN, a new {\bf D}ynamic {\bf G}raph {\bf N}eural {\bf N}etwork model, which can model the dynamic information as the graph evolving. In particular, the proposed framework can keep updating node information by capturing the sequential information of edges (interactions), the time intervals between edges and information propagation coherently. Experimental results on various dynamic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.