Data-Driven Probabilistic Air-Sea Flux Parameterization

Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea fluxes, which is missing in deterministic bulk algorithms. Assuming Gaussian distributions conditioned on the input variables, we use artificial neural networks and eddy-covariance measurement data to estimate the mean and variance by minimizing negative log-likelihood loss. The trained neural networks provide alternative mean flux estimates to existing bulk algorithms, and quantify the uncertainty around the mean estimates. Stochastic parameterization of air-sea turbulent fluxes can be constructed by sampling from the predicted distributions. Tests in a single-column forced upper-ocean model suggest that changes in flux algorithms influence sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth seasonally. The ensemble spread in stochastic runs is most pronounced during spring restratification.

Wearable Sensor-based Multimodal Physiological Responses of Socially Anxious Individuals across Social Contexts

Correctly identifying an individual's social context from passively worn sensors holds promise for delivering just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) to treat social anxiety disorder. In this study, we present results using passively collected data from a within-subject experiment that assessed physiological response across different social contexts (i.e, alone vs. with others), social phases (i.e., pre- and post-interaction vs. during an interaction), social interaction sizes (i.e., dyadic vs. group interactions), and levels of social threat (i.e., implicit vs. explicit social evaluation). Participants in the study ($N=46$) reported moderate to severe social anxiety symptoms as assessed by the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale ($\geq$34 out of 80). Univariate paired difference tests, multivariate random forest models, and follow-up cluster analyses were used to explore physiological response patterns across different social and non-social contexts. Our results suggest that social context is more reliably distinguishable than social phase, group size, or level of social threat, but that there is considerable variability in physiological response patterns even among these distinguishable contexts. Implications for real-world context detection and deployment of JITAIs are discussed.