Patient-independent Schizophrenia Relapse Prediction Using Mobile Sensor based Daily Behavioral Rhythm Changes

A schizophrenia relapse has severe consequences for a patient's health, work, and sometimes even life safety. If an oncoming relapse can be predicted on time, for example by detecting early behavioral changes in patients, then interventions could be provided to prevent the relapse. In this work, we investigated a machine learning based schizophrenia relapse prediction model using mobile sensing data to characterize behavioral features. A patient-independent model providing sequential predictions, closely representing the clinical deployment scenario for relapse prediction, was evaluated. The model uses the mobile sensing data from the recent four weeks to predict an oncoming relapse in the next week. We used the behavioral rhythm features extracted from daily templates of mobile sensing data, self-reported symptoms collected via EMA (Ecological Momentary Assessment), and demographics to compare different classifiers for the relapse prediction. Naive Bayes based model gave the best results with an F2 score of 0.083 when evaluated in a dataset consisting of 63 schizophrenia patients, each monitored for up to a year. The obtained F2 score, though low, is better than the baseline performance of random classification (F2 score of 0.02 $\pm$ 0.024). Thus, mobile sensing has predictive value for detecting an oncoming relapse and needs further investigation to improve the current performance. Towards that end, further feature engineering and model personalization based on the behavioral idiosyncrasies of a patient could be helpful.

Routine Clustering of Mobile Sensor Data Facilitates Psychotic Relapse Prediction in Schizophrenia Patients

We aim to develop clustering models to obtain behavioral representations from continuous multimodal mobile sensing data towards relapse prediction tasks. The identified clusters could represent different routine behavioral trends related to daily living of patients as well as atypical behavioral trends associated with impending relapse. We used the mobile sensing data obtained in the CrossCheck project for our analysis. Continuous data from six different mobile sensing-based modalities (e.g. ambient light, sound/conversation, acceleration etc.) obtained from a total of 63 schizophrenia patients, each monitored for up to a year, were used for the clustering models and relapse prediction evaluation. Two clustering models, Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and Partition Around Medoids (PAM), were used to obtain behavioral representations from the mobile sensing data. The features obtained from the clustering models were used to train and evaluate a personalized relapse prediction model using Balanced Random Forest. The personalization was done by identifying optimal features for a given patient based on a personalization subset consisting of other patients who are of similar age. The clusters identified using the GMM and PAM models were found to represent different behavioral patterns (such as clusters representing sedentary days, active but with low communications days, etc.). Significant changes near the relapse periods were seen in the obtained behavioral representation features from the clustering models. The clustering model based features, together with other features characterizing the mobile sensing data, resulted in an F2 score of 0.24 for the relapse prediction task in a leave-one-patient-out evaluation setting. This obtained F2 score is significantly higher than a random classification baseline with an average F2 score of 0.042.