Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing

New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel demand decreased modestly. The effects are spatially heterogeneous: while reductions in overall travel demand are concentrated within the Congestion Relief Zone, transit gains extend beyond Manhattan's core. Socio-demographic analyses further reveal uneven adaptation across neighborhoods, highlighting spatial equity implications. Our framework provides a scalable approach for the uncertainty-aware evaluation of system-wide urban interventions when clean control groups are unavailable.

Vehicles, Pedestrians, and E-bikes: a Three-party Game at Right-turn-on-red Crossroads Revealing the Dual and Irrational Role of E-bikes that Risks Traffic Safety

The widespread use of e-bikes has facilitated short-distance travel yet led to confusion and safety problems in road traffic. This study focuses on the dual characteristics of e-bikes in traffic conflicts: they resemble pedestrians when interacting with motor vehicles and behave like motor vehicles when in conflict with pedestrians, which raises the right of way concerns when potential conflicts are at stake. Using the Quantal Response Equilibrium model, this research analyzes the behavioral choice differences of three groups of road users (vehicle-pedestrian, vehicle-e-bike, e-bike-pedestrian) at right-turn-on-red crossroads in right-turning lines and straight-going lines conflict scenarios. The results show that the behavior of e-bikes is more similar to that of motor vehicles than pedestrians overall, and their interactions with either pedestrians or motor vehicles do not establish a reasonable order, increasing the likelihood of confusion and conflict. In contrast, a mutual understanding has developed between motor vehicles and pedestrians, where motor vehicles tend to yield, and pedestrians tend to cross. By clarifying the game theoretical model and introducing the rationality parameter, this study precisely locates the role of e-bikes among road users, which provides a reliable theoretical basis for optimizing traffic regulations.