Ensemble of Pre-Trained Models for Long-Tailed Trajectory Prediction

This work explores the application of ensemble modeling to the multidimensional regression problem of trajectory prediction for vehicles in urban environments. As newer and bigger state-of-the-art prediction models for autonomous driving continue to emerge, an important open challenge is the problem of how to combine the strengths of these big models without the need for costly re-training. We show how, perhaps surprisingly, combining state-of-the-art deep learning models out-of-the-box (without retraining or fine-tuning) with a simple confidence-weighted average method can enhance the overall prediction. Indeed, while combining trajectory prediction models is not straightforward, this simple approach enhances performance by 10% over the best prediction model, especially in the long-tailed metrics. We show that this performance improvement holds on both the NuScenes and Argoverse datasets, and that these improvements are made across the dataset distribution. The code for our work is open source.

Risk-aware Trajectory Prediction by Incorporating Spatio-temporal Traffic Interaction Analysis

To operate in open-ended environments where humans interact in complex, diverse ways, autonomous robots must learn to predict their behaviour, especially when that behavior is potentially dangerous to other agents or to the robot. However, reducing the risk of accidents requires prior knowledge of where potential collisions may occur and how. Therefore, we propose to gain this information by analyzing locations and speeds that commonly correspond to high-risk interactions within the dataset, and use it within training to generate better predictions in high risk situations. Through these location-based and speed-based re-weighting techniques, we achieve improved overall performance, as measured by most-likely FDE and KDE, as well as improved performance on high-speed vehicles, and vehicles within high-risk locations. 2023 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA)