Cognitive Model Priors for Predicting Human Decisions

Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, theoretical models of this kind have developed slowly, and robust, high-precision predictive models of human decisions remain a challenge. While machine learning is a natural candidate for solving these problems, it is currently unclear to what extent it can improve predictions obtained by current theories. We argue that this is mainly due to data scarcity, since noisy human behavior requires massive sample sizes to be accurately captured by off-the-shelf machine learning methods. To solve this problem, what is needed are machine learning models with appropriate inductive biases for capturing human behavior, and larger datasets. We offer two contributions towards this end: first, we construct "cognitive model priors" by pretraining neural networks with synthetic data generated by cognitive models (i.e., theoretical models developed by cognitive psychologists). We find that fine-tuning these networks on small datasets of real human decisions results in unprecedented state-of-the-art improvements on two benchmark datasets. Second, we present the first large-scale dataset for human decision-making, containing over 240,000 human judgments across over 13,000 decision problems. This dataset reveals the circumstances where cognitive model priors are useful, and provides a new standard for benchmarking prediction of human decisions under uncertainty.

Representational efficiency outweighs action efficiency in human program induction

The importance of hierarchically structured representations for tractable planning has long been acknowledged. However, the questions of how people discover such abstractions and how to define a set of optimal abstractions remain open. This problem has been explored in cognitive science in the problem solving literature and in computer science in hierarchical reinforcement learning. Here, we emphasize an algorithmic perspective on learning hierarchical representations in which the objective is to efficiently encode the structure of the problem, or, equivalently, to learn an algorithm with minimal length. We introduce a novel problem-solving paradigm that links problem solving and program induction under the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework. Using this task, we target the question of whether humans discover hierarchical solutions by maximizing efficiency in number of actions they generate or by minimizing the complexity of the resulting representation and find evidence for the primacy of representational efficiency.