A fast topological approach for predicting anomalies in time-varying graphs

Large time-varying graphs are increasingly common in financial, social and biological settings. Feature extraction that efficiently encodes the complex structure of sparse, multi-layered, dynamic graphs presents computational and methodological challenges. In the past decade, a persistence diagram (PD) from topological data analysis (TDA) has become a popular descriptor of shape of data with a well-defined distance between points. However, applications of TDA to graphs, where there is no intrinsic concept of distance between the nodes, remain largely unexplored. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by introducing a computationally efficient framework to extract shape information from graph data. Our framework has two main steps: first, we compute a PD using the so-called lower-star filtration which utilizes quantitative node attributes, and then vectorize it by averaging the associated Betti function over successive scale values on a one-dimensional grid. Our approach avoids embedding a graph into a metric space and has stability properties against input noise. In simulation studies, we show that the proposed vector summary leads to improved change point detection rate in time-varying graphs. In a real data application, our approach provides up to 22% gain in anomalous price prediction for the Ethereum cryptocurrency transaction networks.

Dissecting Ethereum Blockchain Analytics: What We Learn from Topology and Geometry of Ethereum Graph

Blockchain technology and, in particular, blockchain-based cryptocurrencies offer us information that has never been seen before in the financial world. In contrast to fiat currencies, all transactions of crypto-currencies and crypto-tokens are permanently recorded on distributed ledgers and are publicly available. As a result, this allows us to construct a transaction graph and to assess not only its organization but to glean relationships between transaction graph properties and crypto price dynamics. The ultimate goal of this paper is to facilitate our understanding on horizons and limitations of what can be learned on crypto-tokens from local topology and geometry of the Ethereum transaction network whose even global network properties remain scarcely explored. By introducing novel tools based on topological data analysis and functional data depth into Blockchain Data Analytics, we show that Ethereum network (one of the most popular blockchains for creating new crypto-tokens) can provide critical insights on price strikes of crypto-tokens that are otherwise largely inaccessible with conventional data sources and traditional analytic methods.