Gradient Boosted Risk Scores

Risk scores are an interpretable and actionable class of machine learning models with applications in medicine, insurance, and risk management. Unlike most computational methods, risk scores are designed to be computed by a human by attributing points to a data sample based on a limited set of criteria. The most common approaches for generating risk scores use linear regressions to estimate the effect of selected variables. We propose a simple and effective approach towards building compact and predictive risk scores. We provide an algorithm based on gradient boosting that is capable of modeling nonlinear effects, along with a C++ implementation with Python and R bindings. Through extensive empirical evaluation on twelve tabular datasets spanning regression, classification, and time-to-event tasks, we show that our method achieves competitive predictive performance while producing substantially more compact scores than regression-based alternatives, with 60% fewer rules for classification tasks and 16% fewer rules for time-to-event tasks on average, compared to AutoScore.

Dyadic Human Motion Prediction

Prior work on human motion forecasting has mostly focused on predicting the future motion of single subjects in isolation from their past pose sequence. In the presence of closely interacting people, however, this strategy fails to account for the dependencies between the different subject's motions. In this paper, we therefore introduce a motion prediction framework that explicitly reasons about the interactions of two observed subjects. Specifically, we achieve this by introducing a pairwise attention mechanism that models the mutual dependencies in the motion history of the two subjects. This allows us to preserve the long-term motion dynamics in a more realistic way and more robustly predict unusual and fast-paced movements, such as the ones occurring in a dance scenario. To evaluate this, and because no existing motion prediction datasets depict two closely-interacting subjects, we introduce the LindyHop600K dance dataset. Our results evidence that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art single person motion prediction techniques.