Relaxed-Responsibility Hierarchical Discrete VAEs

Successfully training Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with a hierarchy of discrete latent variables remains an area of active research. Leveraging insights from classical methods of inference we introduce $\textit{Relaxed-Responsibility Vector-Quantisation}$, a novel way to parameterise discrete latent variables, a refinement of relaxed Vector-Quantisation. This enables a novel approach to hierarchical discrete variational autoencoder with numerous layers of latent variables that we train end-to-end. Unlike discrete VAEs with a single layer of latent variables, we can produce realistic-looking samples by ancestral sampling: it is not essential to train a second generative model over the learnt latent representations to then sample from and then decode. Further, we observe different layers of our model become associated with different aspects of the data.

Inferring proximity from Bluetooth Low Energy RSSI with Unscented Kalman Smoothers

The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a variety of approaches for managing infection outbreaks in international populations. One example is mobile phone applications, which attempt to alert infected individuals and their contacts by automatically inferring two key components of infection risk: the proximity to an individual who may be infected, and the duration of proximity. The former component, proximity, relies on Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) Received Signal Strength Indicator(RSSI) as a distance sensor, and this has been shown to be problematic; not least because of unpredictable variations caused by different device types, device location on-body, device orientation, the local environment and the general noise associated with radio frequency propagation. In this paper, we present an approach that infers posterior probabilities over distance given sequences of RSSI values. Using a single-dimensional Unscented Kalman Smoother (UKS) for non-linear state space modelling, we outline several Gaussian process observation transforms, including: a generative model that directly captures sources of variation; and a discriminative model that learns a suitable observation function from training data using both distance and infection risk as optimisation objective functions. Our results show that good risk prediction can be achieved in $\mathcal{O}(n)$ time on real-world data sets, with the UKS outperforming more traditional classification methods learned from the same training data.

Neural Ensemble Search for Performant and Calibrated Predictions

Ensembles of neural networks achieve superior performance compared to stand-alone networks not only in terms of accuracy on in-distribution data but also on data with distributional shift alongside improved uncertainty calibration. Diversity among networks in an ensemble is believed to be key for building strong ensembles, but typical approaches only ensemble different weight vectors of a fixed architecture. Instead, we investigate neural architecture search (NAS) for explicitly constructing ensembles to exploit diversity among networks of varying architectures and to achieve robustness against distributional shift. By directly optimizing ensemble performance, our methods implicitly encourage diversity among networks, without the need to explicitly define diversity. We find that the resulting ensembles are more diverse compared to ensembles composed of a fixed architecture and are therefore also more powerful. We show significant improvements in ensemble performance on image classification tasks both for in-distribution data and during distributional shift with better uncertainty calibration.

Learning Bijective Feature Maps for Linear ICA

Separating high-dimensional data like images into independent latent factors remains an open research problem. Here we develop a method that jointly learns a linear independent component analysis (ICA) model with non-linear bijective feature maps. By combining these two methods, ICA can learn interpretable latent structure for images. For non-square ICA, where we assume the number of sources is less than the dimensionality of data, we achieve better unsupervised latent factor discovery than flow-based models and linear ICA. This performance scales to large image datasets such as CelebA.

Regularising Deep Networks with Deep Generative Models

We develop a new method for regularising neural networks. We learn a probability distribution over the activations of all layers of the model and then insert imputed values into the network during training. We obtain a posterior for an arbitrary subset of activations conditioned on the remainder. This is a generalisation of data augmentation to the hidden layers of a network, and a form of data-aware dropout. We demonstrate that our training method leads to higher test accuracy and lower test-set cross-entropy for neural networks trained on CIFAR-10 and SVHN compared to standard regularisation baselines: our approach leads to networks with better calibrated uncertainty over the class posteriors all the while delivering greater test-set accuracy.

Disentangling to Cluster: Gaussian Mixture Variational Ladder Autoencoders

In clustering we normally output one cluster variable for each datapoint. However it is not necessarily the case that there is only one way to partition a given dataset into cluster components. For example, one could cluster objects by their colour, or by their type. Different attributes form a hierarchy, and we could wish to cluster in any of them. By disentangling the learnt latent representations of some dataset into different layers for different attributes we can then cluster in those latent spaces. We call this "disentangled clustering". Extending Variational Ladder Autoencoders (Zhao et al., 2017), we propose a clustering algorithm, VLAC, that outperforms a Gaussian Mixture DGM in cluster accuracy over digit identity on the test set of SVHN. We also demonstrate learning clusters jointly over numerous layers of the hierarchy of latent variables for the data, and show component-wise generation from this hierarchical model.

Disentangling Improves VAEs' Robustness to Adversarial Attacks

This paper is concerned with the robustness of VAEs to adversarial attacks. We highlight that conventional VAEs are brittle under attack but that methods recently introduced for disentanglement such as $\beta$-TCVAE (Chen et al., 2018) improve robustness, as demonstrated through a variety of previously proposed adversarial attacks (Tabacof et al. (2016); Gondim-Ribeiro et al. (2018); Kos et al.(2018)). This motivated us to develop Seatbelt-VAE, a new hierarchical disentangled VAE that is designed to be significantly more robust to adversarial attacks than existing approaches, while retaining high quality reconstructions.

On the marginal likelihood and cross-validation

In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through $k$-fold partitioning or leave-$p$-out subsampling. We show that the marginal likelihood is formally equivalent to exhaustive leave-$p$-out cross-validation averaged over all values of $p$ and all held-out test sets when using the log posterior predictive probability as the scoring rule. Moreover, the log posterior predictive is the only coherent scoring rule under data exchangeability. This offers new insight into the marginal likelihood and cross-validation and highlights the potential sensitivity of the marginal likelihood to the setting of the prior. We suggest an alternative approach using aggregate cross-validation following a preparatory training phase. Our work has connections to prequential analysis and intrinsic Bayes factors but is motivated through a different course.

Scalable Nonparametric Sampling from Multimodal Posteriors with the Posterior Bootstrap

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the validity of the conventional Bayesian update. We present a scalable Bayesian nonparametric learning routine that enables posterior sampling through the optimization of suitably randomized objective functions. A Dirichlet process prior on the unknown data distribution accounts for model misspecification, and admits an embarrassingly parallel posterior bootstrap algorithm that generates independent and exact samples from the nonparametric posterior distribution. Our method is particularly adept at sampling from multimodal posterior distributions via a random restart mechanism. We demonstrate our method on Gaussian mixture model and sparse logistic regression examples.

Machine learning and AI research for Patient Benefit: 20 Critical Questions on Transparency, Replicability, Ethics and Effectiveness

Machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI) and other modern statistical methods are providing new opportunities to operationalize previously untapped and rapidly growing sources of data for patient benefit. Whilst there is a lot of promising research currently being undertaken, the literature as a whole lacks: transparency; clear reporting to facilitate replicability; exploration for potential ethical concerns; and, clear demonstrations of effectiveness. There are many reasons for why these issues exist, but one of the most important that we provide a preliminary solution for here is the current lack of ML/AI- specific best practice guidance. Although there is no consensus on what best practice looks in this field, we believe that interdisciplinary groups pursuing research and impact projects in the ML/AI for health domain would benefit from answering a series of questions based on the important issues that exist when undertaking work of this nature. Here we present 20 questions that span the entire project life cycle, from inception, data analysis, and model evaluation, to implementation, as a means to facilitate project planning and post-hoc (structured) independent evaluation. By beginning to answer these questions in different settings, we can start to understand what constitutes a good answer, and we expect that the resulting discussion will be central to developing an international consensus framework for transparent, replicable, ethical and effective research in artificial intelligence (AI-TREE) for health.