Domain-informed explainable boosting machines for trustworthy lateral spread predictions

Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs) provide transparent predictions through additive shape functions, enabling direct inspection of feature contributions. However, EBMs can learn non-physical relationships that reduce their reliability in natural hazard applications. This study presents a domain-informed framework to improve the physical consistency of EBMs for lateral spreading prediction. Our approach modifies learned shape functions based on domain knowledge. These modifications correct non-physical behavior while maintaining data-driven patterns. We apply the method to the 2011 Christchurch earthquake dataset and correct non-physical trends observed in the original EBM. The resulting model produces more physically consistent global and local explanations, with an acceptable tradeoff in accuracy (4--5\%).

Investigating the effect of CPT in lateral spreading prediction using Explainable AI

This study proposes an autoencoder approach to extract latent features from cone penetration test profiles to evaluate the potential of incorporating CPT data in an AI model. We employ autoencoders to compress 200 CPT profiles of soil behavior type index (Ic) and normalized cone resistance (qc1Ncs) into ten latent features while preserving critical information. We then utilize the extracted latent features with site parameters to train XGBoost models for predicting lateral spreading occurrences in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Models using the latent CPT features outperformed models with conventional CPT metrics or no CPT data, achieving over 83% accuracy. Explainable AI revealed the most crucial latent feature corresponding to soil behavior between 1-3 meter depths, highlighting this depth range's criticality for liquefaction evaluation. The autoencoder approach provides an automated technique for condensing CPT profiles into informative latent features for machine-learning liquefaction models.

Explainable AI models for predicting liquefaction-induced lateral spreading

Earthquake-induced liquefaction can cause substantial lateral spreading, posing threats to infrastructure. Machine learning (ML) can improve lateral spreading prediction models by capturing complex soil characteristics and site conditions. However, the "black box" nature of ML models can hinder their adoption in critical decision-making. This study addresses this limitation by using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model for lateral spreading prediction, trained on data from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. SHAP analysis reveals the factors driving the model's predictions, enhancing transparency and allowing for comparison with established engineering knowledge. The results demonstrate that the XGB model successfully identifies the importance of soil characteristics derived from Cone Penetration Test (CPT) data in predicting lateral spreading, validating its alignment with domain understanding. This work highlights the value of explainable machine learning for reliable and informed decision-making in geotechnical engineering and hazard assessment.