Closed-form Filtering for Non-linear Systems

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as the tabular setting or for linear dynamical systems with gaussian noise. In this work, we propose a new class of filters based on Gaussian PSD Models, which offer several advantages in terms of density approximation and computational efficiency. We show that filtering can be efficiently performed in closed form when transitions and observations are Gaussian PSD Models. When the transition and observations are approximated by Gaussian PSD Models, we show that our proposed estimator enjoys strong theoretical guarantees, with estimation error that depends on the quality of the approximation and is adaptive to the regularity of the transition probabilities. In particular, we identify regimes in which our proposed filter attains a TV $\epsilon$-error with memory and computational complexity of $O(\epsilon^{-1})$ and $O(\epsilon^{-3/2})$ respectively, including the offline learning step, in contrast to the $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ complexity of sampling methods such as particle filtering.

A PAC-Bayesian Link Between Generalisation and Flat Minima

Modern machine learning usually involves predictors in the overparametrised setting (number of trained parameters greater than dataset size), and their training yield not only good performances on training data, but also good generalisation capacity. This phenomenon challenges many theoretical results, and remains an open problem. To reach a better understanding, we provide novel generalisation bounds involving gradient terms. To do so, we combine the PAC-Bayes toolbox with Poincar\'e and Log-Sobolev inequalities, avoiding an explicit dependency on dimension of the predictor space. Our results highlight the positive influence of \emph{flat minima} (being minima with a neighbourhood nearly minimising the learning problem as well) on generalisation performances, involving directly the benefits of the optimisation phase.

Tighter Generalisation Bounds via Interpolation

This paper contains a recipe for deriving new PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds based on the $(f, \Gamma)$-divergence, and, in addition, presents PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds where we interpolate between a series of probability divergences (including but not limited to KL, Wasserstein, and total variation), making the best out of many worlds depending on the posterior distributions properties. We explore the tightness of these bounds and connect them to earlier results from statistical learning, which are specific cases. We also instantiate our bounds as training objectives, yielding non-trivial guarantees and practical performances.

A note on regularised NTK dynamics with an application to PAC-Bayesian training

We establish explicit dynamics for neural networks whose training objective has a regularising term that constrains the parameters to remain close to their initial value. This keeps the network in a lazy training regime, where the dynamics can be linearised around the initialisation. The standard neural tangent kernel (NTK) governs the evolution during the training in the infinite-width limit, although the regularisation yields an additional term appears in the differential equation describing the dynamics. This setting provides an appropriate framework to study the evolution of wide networks trained to optimise generalisation objectives such as PAC-Bayes bounds, and hence potentially contribute to a deeper theoretical understanding of such networks.

Federated Learning with Nonvacuous Generalisation Bounds

We introduce a novel strategy to train randomised predictors in federated learning, where each node of the network aims at preserving its privacy by releasing a local predictor but keeping secret its training dataset with respect to the other nodes. We then build a global randomised predictor which inherits the properties of the local private predictors in the sense of a PAC-Bayesian generalisation bound. We consider the synchronous case where all nodes share the same training objective (derived from a generalisation bound), and the asynchronous case where each node may have its own personalised training objective. We show through a series of numerical experiments that our approach achieves a comparable predictive performance to that of the batch approach where all datasets are shared across nodes. Moreover the predictors are supported by numerically nonvacuous generalisation bounds while preserving privacy for each node. We explicitly compute the increment on predictive performance and generalisation bounds between batch and federated settings, highlighting the price to pay to preserve privacy.

Comparing Comparators in Generalization Bounds

We derive generic information-theoretic and PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds involving an arbitrary convex comparator function, which measures the discrepancy between the training and population loss. The bounds hold under the assumption that the cumulant-generating function (CGF) of the comparator is upper-bounded by the corresponding CGF within a family of bounding distributions. We show that the tightest possible bound is obtained with the comparator being the convex conjugate of the CGF of the bounding distribution, also known as the Cram\'er function. This conclusion applies more broadly to generalization bounds with a similar structure. This confirms the near-optimality of known bounds for bounded and sub-Gaussian losses and leads to novel bounds under other bounding distributions.

Generalization Bounds: Perspectives from Information Theory and PAC-Bayes

A fundamental question in theoretical machine learning is generalization. Over the past decades, the PAC-Bayesian approach has been established as a flexible framework to address the generalization capabilities of machine learning algorithms, and design new ones. Recently, it has garnered increased interest due to its potential applicability for a variety of learning algorithms, including deep neural networks. In parallel, an information-theoretic view of generalization has developed, wherein the relation between generalization and various information measures has been established. This framework is intimately connected to the PAC-Bayesian approach, and a number of results have been independently discovered in both strands. In this monograph, we highlight this strong connection and present a unified treatment of generalization. We present techniques and results that the two perspectives have in common, and discuss the approaches and interpretations that differ. In particular, we demonstrate how many proofs in the area share a modular structure, through which the underlying ideas can be intuited. We pay special attention to the conditional mutual information (CMI) framework; analytical studies of the information complexity of learning algorithms; and the application of the proposed methods to deep learning. This monograph is intended to provide a comprehensive introduction to information-theoretic generalization bounds and their connection to PAC-Bayes, serving as a foundation from which the most recent developments are accessible. It is aimed broadly towards researchers with an interest in generalization and theoretical machine learning.

Learning via Wasserstein-Based High Probability Generalisation Bounds

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) - this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of interest in recent years, a limitation of the PAC-Bayesian framework is that most bounds involve a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence term (or its variations), which might exhibit erratic behavior and fail to capture the underlying geometric structure of the learning problem - hence restricting its use in practical applications. As a remedy, recent studies have attempted to replace the KL divergence in the PAC-Bayesian bounds with the Wasserstein distance. Even though these bounds alleviated the aforementioned issues to a certain extent, they either hold in expectation, are for bounded losses, or are nontrivial to minimize in an SRM framework. In this work, we contribute to this line of research and prove novel Wasserstein distance-based PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for both batch learning with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data, and online learning with potentially non-i.i.d. data. Contrary to previous art, our bounds are stronger in the sense that (i) they hold with high probability, (ii) they apply to unbounded (potentially heavy-tailed) losses, and (iii) they lead to optimizable training objectives that can be used in SRM. As a result we derive novel Wasserstein-based PAC-Bayesian learning algorithms and we illustrate their empirical advantage on a variety of experiments.

Wasserstein PAC-Bayes Learning: A Bridge Between Generalisation and Optimisation

PAC-Bayes learning is an established framework to assess the generalisation ability of learning algorithm during the training phase. However, it remains challenging to know whether PAC-Bayes is useful to understand, before training, why the output of well-known algorithms generalise well. We positively answer this question by expanding the \emph{Wasserstein PAC-Bayes} framework, briefly introduced in \cite{amit2022ipm}. We provide new generalisation bounds exploiting geometric assumptions on the loss function. Using our framework, we prove, before any training, that the output of an algorithm from \citet{lambert2022variational} has a strong asymptotic generalisation ability. More precisely, we show that it is possible to incorporate optimisation results within a generalisation framework, building a bridge between PAC-Bayes and optimisation algorithms.

Optimistic Dynamic Regret Bounds

Online Learning (OL) algorithms have originally been developed to guarantee good performances when comparing their output to the best fixed strategy. The question of performance with respect to dynamic strategies remains an active research topic. We develop in this work dynamic adaptations of classical OL algorithms based on the use of experts' advice and the notion of optimism. We also propose a constructivist method to generate those advices and eventually provide both theoretical and experimental guarantees for our procedures.