Predictive Linear Online Tracking for Unknown Targets

In this paper, we study the problem of online tracking in linear control systems, where the objective is to follow a moving target. Unlike classical tracking control, the target is unknown, non-stationary, and its state is revealed sequentially, thus, fitting the framework of online non-stochastic control. We consider the case of quadratic costs and propose a new algorithm, called predictive linear online tracking (PLOT). The algorithm uses recursive least squares with exponential forgetting to learn a time-varying dynamic model of the target. The learned model is used in the optimal policy under the framework of receding horizon control. We show the dynamic regret of PLOT scales with $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{TV_T})$, where $V_T$ is the total variation of the target dynamics and $T$ is the time horizon. Unlike prior work, our theoretical results hold for non-stationary targets. We implement PLOT on a real quadrotor and provide open-source software, thus, showcasing one of the first successful applications of online control methods on real hardware.

Implications of Regret on Stability of Linear Dynamical Systems

The setting of an agent making decisions under uncertainty and under dynamic constraints is common for the fields of optimal control, reinforcement learning and recently also for online learning. In the online learning setting, the quality of an agent's decision is often quantified by the concept of regret, comparing the performance of the chosen decisions to the best possible ones in hindsight. While regret is a useful performance measure, when dynamical systems are concerned, it is important to also assess the stability of the closed-loop system for a chosen policy. In this work, we show that for linear state feedback policies and linear systems subject to adversarial disturbances, linear regret implies asymptotic stability in both time-varying and time-invariant settings. Conversely, we also show that bounded input bounded state (BIBS) stability and summability of the state transition matrices imply linear regret.