An Information-Theoretic Perspective on Multi-LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Large language models (LLMs) often behave inconsistently across inputs, indicating uncertainty and motivating the need for its quantification in high-stakes settings. Prior work on calibration and uncertainty quantification often focuses on individual models, overlooking the potential of model diversity. We hypothesize that LLMs make complementary predictions due to differences in training and the Zipfian nature of language, and that aggregating their outputs leads to more reliable uncertainty estimates. To leverage this, we propose MUSE (Multi-LLM Uncertainty via Subset Ensembles), a simple information-theoretic method that uses Jensen-Shannon Divergence to identify and aggregate well-calibrated subsets of LLMs. Experiments on binary prediction tasks demonstrate improved calibration and predictive performance compared to single-model and naive ensemble baselines.

Position Paper On Diagnostic Uncertainty Estimation from Large Language Models: Next-Word Probability Is Not Pre-test Probability

Large language models (LLMs) are being explored for diagnostic decision support, yet their ability to estimate pre-test probabilities, vital for clinical decision-making, remains limited. This study evaluates two LLMs, Mistral-7B and Llama3-70B, using structured electronic health record data on three diagnosis tasks. We examined three current methods of extracting LLM probability estimations and revealed their limitations. We aim to highlight the need for improved techniques in LLM confidence estimation.