Accurate and Reliable Uncertainty Estimates for Deterministic Predictions Extensions to Under and Overpredictions

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by sampling input parameter distributions or by augmenting deterministic outputs with uncertainty representations, including distribution-free and distributional methods. However, sampling-based methods are often computationally prohibitive for real-time applications, and many existing uncertainty representations either ignore input dependence or rely on restrictive Gaussian assumptions that fail to capture asymmetry and heavy-tailed behavior. Therefore, we extend the ACCurate and Reliable Uncertainty Estimate (ACCRUE) framework to learn input-dependent, non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions, specifically two-piece Gaussian and asymmetric Laplace forms, using a neural network trained with a loss function that balances predictive accuracy and reliability. Through synthetic and real-world experiments, we show that the proposed approach captures an input-dependent uncertainty structure and improves probabilistic forecasts relative to existing methods, while maintaining flexibility to model skewed and non-Gaussian errors.

Making Room for AI: Multi-GPU Molecular Dynamics with Deep Potentials in GROMACS

GROMACS is a de-facto standard for classical Molecular Dynamics (MD). The rise of AI-driven interatomic potentials that pursue near-quantum accuracy at MD throughput now poses a significant challenge: embedding neural-network inference into multi-GPU simulations retaining high-performance. In this work, we integrate the MLIP framework DeePMD-kit into GROMACS, enabling domain-decomposed, GPU-accelerated inference across multi-node systems. We extend the GROMACS NNPot interface with a DeePMD backend, and we introduce a domain decomposition layer decoupled from the main simulation. The inference is executed concurrently on all processes, with two MPI collectives used each step to broadcast coordinates and to aggregate and redistribute forces. We train an in-house DPA-1 model (1.6 M parameters) on a dataset of solvated protein fragments. We validate the implementation on a small protein system, then we benchmark the GROMACS-DeePMD integration with a 15,668 atom protein on NVIDIA A100 and AMD MI250x GPUs up to 32 devices. Strong-scaling efficiency reaches 66% at 16 devices and 40% at 32; weak-scaling efficiency is 80% to 16 devices and reaches 48% (MI250x) and 40% (A100) at 32 devices. Profiling with the ROCm System profiler shows that >90% of the wall time is spent in DeePMD inference, while MPI collectives contribute <10%, primarily since they act as a global synchronization point. The principal bottlenecks are the irreducible ghost-atom cost set by the cutoff radius, confirmed by a simple throughput model, and load imbalance across ranks. These results demonstrate that production MD with near ab initio fidelity is feasible at scale in GROMACS.

Discovering Governing Equations of Geomagnetic Storm Dynamics with Symbolic Regression

Geomagnetic storms are large-scale disturbances of the Earth's magnetosphere driven by solar wind interactions, posing significant risks to space-based and ground-based infrastructure. The Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index quantifies geomagnetic storm intensity by measuring global magnetic field variations. This study applies symbolic regression to derive data-driven equations describing the temporal evolution of the Dst index. We use historical data from the NASA OMNIweb database, including solar wind density, bulk velocity, convective electric field, dynamic pressure, and magnetic pressure. The PySR framework, an evolutionary algorithm-based symbolic regression library, is used to identify mathematical expressions linking dDst/dt to key solar wind. The resulting models include a hierarchy of complexity levels and enable a comparison with well-established empirical models such as the Burton-McPherron-Russell and O'Brien-McPherron models. The best-performing symbolic regression models demonstrate superior accuracy in most cases, particularly during moderate geomagnetic storms, while maintaining physical interpretability. Performance evaluation on historical storm events includes the 2003 Halloween Storm, the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm, and a 2017 moderate storm. The results provide interpretable, closed-form expressions that capture nonlinear dependencies and thresholding effects in Dst evolution.

A Machine-Learning-Ready Dataset Prepared from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Mission

We present a Python tool to generate a standard dataset from solar images that allows for user-defined selection criteria and a range of pre-processing steps. Our Python tool works with all image products from both the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) missions. We discuss a dataset produced from the SoHO mission's multi-spectral images which is free of missing or corrupt data as well as planetary transits in coronagraph images, and is temporally synced making it ready for input to a machine learning system. Machine-learning-ready images are a valuable resource for the community because they can be used, for example, for forecasting space weather parameters. We illustrate the use of this data with a 3-5 day-ahead forecast of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at Lagrange point one (L1). For this use case, we apply a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to a subset of the full SoHO dataset and compare with baseline results from a Gaussian Naive Bayes classifier.