Topology-Driven Transferability Estimation for 3D Medical Vision Foundation Models

The growing number of medical vision foundation models highlights the need for effective model selection. However, mainstream selection methods rely on exhaustive fine-tuning, which is computationally expensive. Most of the existing Transferability Estimation (TE) metrics are primarily designed for image-level classification. They fail to preserve spatial relationships and fine-grained boundary details, which are crucial for the segmentation task. Additionally, while image-level tasks typically process a single feature vector per input, dense prediction tasks in 3D medical imaging require voxel-wise evaluation against dense annotations. To bridge these gaps, we propose a \textit{non-parametric, topology-driven} framework that estimates transferability directly from the alignment between the sparse 1-skeleton graph of dense features and semantic labels via Minimum Spanning Trees (MST). We decouple the alignment into two complementary geometric scales: Local Boundary-Aware Topological Consistency (LBTC) to assess boundary separability, where we prove that the MST leakage rate serves as a finite-sample lower bound on the Bayes error; and Global Representation Topology Divergence (GRTD) to evaluate the overall anatomical layout. Crucially, we formally justify a counterintuitive mechanism: Although without fine-tuning, the randomly initialized segmentation decoder acts as a topology-preserving spatial projector, reducing the variance of pairwise distance estimates and stabilizing global alignment evaluation. Fused via a task-adaptive gating mechanism, these dual metrics adapt to diverse clinical complexities. Evaluated on a large-scale benchmark of 114,000 3D medical volumes across diverse anatomical tasks, our topological framework achieves state-of-the-art transferability estimation with an average weighted Kendall (outperforming by 0.36) while accelerating evaluation by 56 times.