Reference-Sampled Boltzmann Projection for KL-Regularized RLVR: Target-Matched Weighted SFT, Finite One-Shot Gaps, and Policy Mirror Descent

Online reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) turns checkable outcomes into a scalable training signal, but it keeps rollout generation, verifier scoring, and reference-policy evaluations on the optimization path. Static weighted supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on precomputed rollouts seems to remove this bottleneck, yet a weighted likelihood is not specified by rewards alone: its sampler and weights induce the policy being fit. This paper identifies the reference-sampled weighted-SFT objective whose induced policy equals the fixed-reference KL-regularized RLVR optimizer. The optimizer is the standard Boltzmann target policy, obtained by exponentially tilting the reference policy by verifier reward. Matching a weighted-SFT induced policy to this target forces density-ratio weights; in the reference-sampled subclass, this reduces uniquely, up to prompt scaling, to the prompt-normalized Boltzmann weight $\exp(r(x,y)/β)/Z(x)$. BOLT, a Boltzmann-Targeted SFT procedure, is the empirical estimator of this projection. The finite one-shot analysis separates the exact stored-support price $β\log(1/π^*(S_N\mid x))$ from partition estimation, effective-sample-size variance, generalization, optimization, and approximation errors. This decomposition explains why extra SFT epochs cannot repair missing reference-policy coverage and exposes the temperature--coverage--variance frontier. When coverage needs adaptive sampling, refreshed Boltzmann projections become KL policy mirror descent; finite inner solves enter as additive drift from the exact mirror step. Single-run Qwen experiments provide projection evidence for the target-matched weight, one-shot saturation, refreshed-sampler gains, and optimization-time savings, within the stated single-run scope.