From Scalar Rewards to Potential Trends: Shaping Potential Landscapes for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) achieves high sample efficiency by simulating future trajectories with learned dynamics and reward models. However, its effectiveness is severely compromised in sparse reward settings. The core limitation lies in the standard paradigm of regressing ground-truth scalar rewards: in sparse environments, this yields a flat, gradient-free landscape that fails to provide directional guidance for planning. To address this challenge, we propose Shaping Landscapes with Optimistic Potential Estimates (SLOPE), a novel framework that shifts reward modeling from predicting scalars to constructing informative potential landscapes. SLOPE employs optimistic distributional regression to estimate high-confidence upper bounds, which amplifies rare success signals and ensures sufficient exploration gradients. Evaluations on 30+ tasks across 5 benchmarks demonstrate that SLOPE consistently outperforms leading baselines in fully sparse, semi-sparse, and dense rewards.