Intelligent Agricultural Management Considering N$_2$O Emission and Climate Variability with Uncertainties

This study examines how artificial intelligence (AI), especially Reinforcement Learning (RL), can be used in farming to boost crop yields, fine-tune nitrogen use and watering, and reduce nitrate runoff and greenhouse gases, focusing on Nitrous Oxide (N$_2$O) emissions from soil. Facing climate change and limited agricultural knowledge, we use Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with a crop simulator to model AI agents' interactions with farming environments. We apply deep Q-learning with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based Q networks for training agents on optimal actions. Also, we develop Machine Learning (ML) models to predict N$_2$O emissions, integrating these predictions into the simulator. Our research tackles uncertainties in N$_2$O emission estimates with a probabilistic ML approach and climate variability through a stochastic weather model, offering a range of emission outcomes to improve forecast reliability and decision-making. By incorporating climate change effects, we enhance agents' climate adaptability, aiming for resilient agricultural practices. Results show these agents can align crop productivity with environmental concerns by penalizing N$_2$O emissions, adapting effectively to climate shifts like warmer temperatures and less rain. This strategy improves farm management under climate change, highlighting AI's role in sustainable agriculture.

Learning-based agricultural management in partially observable environments subject to climate variability

Agricultural management, with a particular focus on fertilization strategies, holds a central role in shaping crop yield, economic profitability, and environmental sustainability. While conventional guidelines offer valuable insights, their efficacy diminishes when confronted with extreme weather conditions, such as heatwaves and droughts. In this study, we introduce an innovative framework that integrates Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Leveraging the Gym-DSSAT simulator, we train an intelligent agent to master optimal nitrogen fertilization management. Through a series of simulation experiments conducted on corn crops in Iowa, we compare Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) models with Markov Decision Process (MDP) models. Our research underscores the advantages of utilizing sequential observations in developing more efficient nitrogen input policies. Additionally, we explore the impact of climate variability, particularly during extreme weather events, on agricultural outcomes and management. Our findings demonstrate the adaptability of fertilization policies to varying climate conditions. Notably, a fixed policy exhibits resilience in the face of minor climate fluctuations, leading to commendable corn yields, cost-effectiveness, and environmental conservation. However, our study illuminates the need for agent retraining to acquire new optimal policies under extreme weather events. This research charts a promising course toward adaptable fertilization strategies that can seamlessly align with dynamic climate scenarios, ultimately contributing to the optimization of crop management practices.