Beyond Demand Estimation: Consumer Surplus Evaluation via Cumulative Propensity Weights

This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to implement in practice due to model misspecification in parametric demand forms and the large data requirements and slow convergence of flexible nonparametric or machine learning approaches. Instead, we exploit the randomness inherent in modern algorithmic pricing, arising from the need to balance exploration and exploitation, and introduce an estimator that avoids explicit estimation and numerical integration of the demand function. Each observed purchase outcome at a randomized price is an unbiased estimate of demand and by carefully reweighting purchase outcomes using novel cumulative propensity weights (CPW), we are able to reconstruct the integral. Building on this idea, we introduce a doubly robust variant named the augmented cumulative propensity weighting (ACPW) estimator that only requires one of either the demand model or the historical pricing policy distribution to be correctly specified. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the use of flexible machine learning methods for estimating consumer surplus, since it achieves fast convergence rates by incorporating an estimate of demand, even when the machine learning estimate has slower convergence rates. Neither of these estimators is a standard application of off-policy evaluation techniques as the target estimand, consumer surplus, is unobserved. To address fairness, we extend this framework to an inequality-aware surplus measure, allowing regulators and firms to quantify the profit-equity trade-off. Finally, we validate our methods through comprehensive numerical studies.

A Tale of Two Cities: Pessimism and Opportunism in Offline Dynamic Pricing

This paper studies offline dynamic pricing without data coverage assumption, thereby allowing for any price including the optimal one not being observed in the offline data. Previous approaches that rely on the various coverage assumptions such as that the optimal prices are observable, would lead to suboptimal decisions and consequently, reduced profits. We address this challenge by framing the problem to a partial identification framework. Specifically, we establish a partial identification bound for the demand parameter whose associated price is unobserved by leveraging the inherent monotonicity property in the pricing problem. We further incorporate pessimistic and opportunistic strategies within the proposed partial identification framework to derive the estimated policy. Theoretically, we establish rate-optimal finite-sample regret guarantees for both strategies. Empirically, we demonstrate the superior performance of the newly proposed methods via a synthetic environment. This research provides practitioners with valuable insights into offline pricing strategies in the challenging no-coverage setting, ultimately fostering sustainable growth and profitability of the company.

Off-policy Evaluation in Doubly Inhomogeneous Environments

This work aims to study off-policy evaluation (OPE) under scenarios where two key reinforcement learning (RL) assumptions -- temporal stationarity and individual homogeneity are both violated. To handle the ``double inhomogeneities", we propose a class of latent factor models for the reward and observation transition functions, under which we develop a general OPE framework that consists of both model-based and model-free approaches. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that develops statistically sound OPE methods in offline RL with double inhomogeneities. It contributes to a deeper understanding of OPE in environments, where standard RL assumptions are not met, and provides several practical approaches in these settings. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed value estimators and empirically show that our approach outperforms competing methods that ignore either temporal nonstationarity or individual heterogeneity. Finally, we illustrate our method on a data set from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care.