Bayesian Federated Cause-of-Death Classification and Quantification Under Distribution Shift

In regions lacking medically certified causes of death, verbal autopsy (VA) is a critical and widely used tool to ascertain the cause of death through interviews with caregivers. Data collected by VAs are often analyzed using probabilistic algorithms. The performance of these algorithms often degrades due to distributional shift across populations. Most existing VA algorithms rely on centralized training, requiring full access to training data for joint modeling. This is often infeasible due to privacy and logistical constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian Federated Learning (BFL) framework that avoids data sharing across multiple training sources. Our method enables reliable individual-level cause-of-death classification and population-level quantification of cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs), in a target domain with limited or no local labeled data. The proposed framework is modular, computationally efficient, and compatible with a wide range of existing VA algorithms as candidate models, facilitating flexible deployment in real-world mortality surveillance systems. We validate the performance of BFL through extensive experiments on two real-world VA datasets under varying levels of distribution shift. Our results show that BFL significantly outperforms the base models built on a single domain and achieves comparable or better performance compared to joint modeling.

Bayesian Joint Spike-and-Slab Graphical Lasso

In this article, we propose a new class of priors for Bayesian inference with multiple Gaussian graphical models. We introduce fully Bayesian treatments of two popular procedures, the group graphical lasso and the fused graphical lasso, and extend them to a continuous spike-and-slab framework to allow self-adaptive shrinkage and model selection simultaneously. We develop an EM algorithm that performs fast and dynamic explorations of posterior modes. Our approach selects sparse models efficiently with substantially smaller bias than would be induced by alternative regularization procedures. The performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through simulation and two real data examples.