Physics-informed RL for Maximal Safety Probability Estimation

Accurate risk quantification and reachability analysis are crucial for safe control and learning, but sampling from rare events, risky states, or long-term trajectories can be prohibitively costly. Motivated by this, we study how to estimate the long-term safety probability of maximally safe actions without sufficient coverage of samples from risky states and long-term trajectories. The use of maximal safety probability in control and learning is expected to avoid conservative behaviors due to over-approximation of risk. Here, we first show that long-term safety probability, which is multiplicative in time, can be converted into additive costs and be solved using standard reinforcement learning methods. We then derive this probability as solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs) and propose Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning (PIRL) algorithm. The proposed method can learn using sparse rewards because the physics constraints help propagate risk information through neighbors. This suggests that, for the purpose of extracting more information for efficient learning, physics constraints can serve as an alternative to reward shaping. The proposed method can also estimate long-term risk using short-term samples and deduce the risk of unsampled states. This feature is in stark contrast with the unconstrained deep RL that demands sufficient data coverage. These merits of the proposed method are demonstrated in numerical simulation.

An Analytic Solution to Covariance Propagation in Neural Networks

Uncertainty quantification of neural networks is critical to measuring the reliability and robustness of deep learning systems. However, this often involves costly or inaccurate sampling methods and approximations. This paper presents a sample-free moment propagation technique that propagates mean vectors and covariance matrices across a network to accurately characterize the input-output distributions of neural networks. A key enabler of our technique is an analytic solution for the covariance of random variables passed through nonlinear activation functions, such as Heaviside, ReLU, and GELU. The wide applicability and merits of the proposed technique are shown in experiments analyzing the input-output distributions of trained neural networks and training Bayesian neural networks.

Context-aware LLM-based Safe Control Against Latent Risks

It is challenging for autonomous control systems to perform complex tasks in the presence of latent risks. Motivated by this challenge, this paper proposes an integrated framework that involves Large Language Models (LLMs), stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and optimization-based control. In the first phrase, the proposed framework breaks down complex tasks into a sequence of smaller subtasks, whose specifications account for contextual information and latent risks. In the second phase, these subtasks and their parameters are refined through a dual process involving LLMs and SGD. LLMs are used to generate rough guesses and failure explanations, and SGD is used to fine-tune parameters. The proposed framework is tested using simulated case studies of robots and vehicles. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework can mediate actions based on the context and latent risks and learn complex behaviors efficiently.

Towards Proactive Safe Human-Robot Collaborations via Data-Efficient Conditional Behavior Prediction

We focus on the problem of how we can enable a robot to collaborate seamlessly with a human partner, specifically in scenarios like collaborative manufacturing where prexisting data is sparse. Much prior work in human-robot collaboration uses observational models of humans (i.e. models that treat the robot purely as an observer) to choose the robot's behavior, but such models do not account for the influence the robot has on the human's actions, which may lead to inefficient interactions. We instead formulate the problem of optimally choosing a collaborative robot's behavior based on a conditional model of the human that depends on the robot's future behavior. First, we propose a novel model-based formulation of conditional behavior prediction that allows the robot to infer the human's intentions based on its future plan in data-sparse environments. We then show how to utilize a conditional model for proactive goal selection and path generation around human collaborators. Finally, we use our proposed proactive controller in a collaborative task with real users to show that it can improve users' interactions with a robot collaborator quantitatively and qualitatively.

A Generalizable Physics-informed Learning Framework for Risk Probability Estimation

Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging. Monte Carlo (MC) methods cannot accurately evaluate the probabilities and their gradients as an infinitesimal devisor can amplify the sampling noise. In this paper, we develop an efficient method to evaluate the probabilities of long-term risk and their gradients. The proposed method exploits the fact that long-term risk probability satisfies certain partial differential equations (PDEs), which characterize the neighboring relations between the probabilities, to integrate MC methods and physics-informed neural networks. We provide theoretical guarantees of the estimation error given certain choices of training configurations. Numerical results show the proposed method has better sample efficiency, generalizes well to unseen regions, and can adapt to systems with changing parameters. The proposed method can also accurately estimate the gradients of risk probabilities, which enables first- and second-order techniques on risk probabilities to be used for learning and control.

A Learning and Control Perspective for Microfinance

Microfinance in developing areas such as Africa has been proven to improve the local economy significantly. However, many applicants in developing areas cannot provide adequate information required by the financial institution to make a lending decision. As a result, it is challenging for microfinance institutions to assign credit properly based on conventional policies. In this paper, we formulate the decision-making of microfinance into a rigorous optimization-based framework involving learning and control. We propose an algorithm to explore and learn the optimal policy to approve or reject applicants. We provide the conditions under which the algorithms are guaranteed to converge to an optimal one. The proposed algorithm can naturally deal with missing information and systematically tradeoff multiple objectives such as profit maximization, financial inclusion, social benefits, and economic development. Through extensive simulation of both real and synthetic microfinance datasets, we showed our proposed algorithm is superior to existing benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to make a connection between microfinance and control and use control-theoretic tools to optimize the policy with a provable guarantee.