Does Misclassifying Non-confounding Covariates as Confounders Affect the Causal Inference within the Potential Outcomes Framework?

The Potential Outcome Framework (POF) plays a prominent role in the field of causal inference. Most causal inference models based on the POF (CIMs-POF) are designed for eliminating confounding bias and default to an underlying assumption of Confounding Covariates. This assumption posits that the covariates consist solely of confounders. However, the assumption of Confounding Covariates is challenging to maintain in practice, particularly when dealing with high-dimensional covariates. While certain methods have been proposed to differentiate the distinct components of covariates prior to conducting causal inference, the consequences of treating non-confounding covariates as confounders remain unclear. This ambiguity poses a potential risk when conducting causal inference in practical scenarios. In this paper, we present a unified graphical framework for the CIMs-POF, which greatly enhances the comprehension of these models' underlying principles. Using this graphical framework, we quantitatively analyze the extent to which the inference performance of CIMs-POF is influenced when incorporating various types of non-confounding covariates, such as instrumental variables, mediators, colliders, and adjustment variables. The key findings are: in the task of eliminating confounding bias, the optimal scenario is for the covariates to exclusively encompass confounders; in the subsequent task of inferring counterfactual outcomes, the adjustment variables contribute to more accurate inferences. Furthermore, extensive experiments conducted on synthetic datasets consistently validate these theoretical conclusions.

A Study on the Impact of Non-confounding Covariates on the Inferential Performance of Methods based on the Potential Outcome Framework

The Potential Outcome Framework (POF) plays a prominent role in the field of causal inference. Most causal inference models based on the POF (CIMs-B-POF) are designed for eliminating confounding bias and default to an underlying assumption of Confounding Covariates. This assumption posits that the covariates consist solely of confounders. However, the assumption of Confounding Covariates is challenging to maintain in practice, particularly when dealing with high-dimensional covariates. While certain methods have been proposed to differentiate the distinct components of covariates prior to conducting causal inference, the consequences of treating non-confounding covariates as confounders remain unclear. This ambiguity poses a potential risk when applying the CIMs-B-POF in practical scenarios. In this paper, we present a unified graphical framework for the CIMs-B-POF, which greatly enhances the comprehension of these models' underlying principles. Using this graphical framework, we quantitatively analyze the extent to which the inference performance of CIMs-B-POF is influenced when incorporating various types of non-confounding covariates, such as instrumental variables, mediators, colliders, and adjustment variables. The key findings are: in the task of eliminating confounding bias, the optimal scenario is for the covariates to exclusively encompass confounders; in the subsequent task of inferring counterfactual outcomes, the adjustment variables contribute to more accurate inferences. Furthermore, extensive experiments conducted on synthetic datasets consistently validate these theoretical conclusions.

VLUCI: Variational Learning of Unobserved Confounders for Counterfactual Inference

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

De-confounding Representation Learning for Counterfactual Inference on Continuous Treatment via Generative Adversarial Network

Counterfactual inference for continuous rather than binary treatment variables is more common in real-world causal inference tasks. While there are already some sample reweighting methods based on Marginal Structural Model for eliminating the confounding bias, they generally focus on removing the treatment's linear dependence on confounders and rely on the accuracy of the assumed parametric models, which are usually unverifiable. In this paper, we propose a de-confounding representation learning (DRL) framework for counterfactual outcome estimation of continuous treatment by generating the representations of covariates disentangled with the treatment variables. The DRL is a non-parametric model that eliminates both linear and nonlinear dependence between treatment and covariates. Specifically, we train the correlations between the de-confounded representations and the treatment variables against the correlations between the covariate representations and the treatment variables to eliminate confounding bias. Further, a counterfactual inference network is embedded into the framework to make the learned representations serve both de-confounding and trusted inference. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets show that the DRL model performs superiorly in learning de-confounding representations and outperforms state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models for continuous treatment variables. In addition, we apply the DRL model to a real-world medical dataset MIMIC and demonstrate a detailed causal relationship between red cell width distribution and mortality.