FinStressTS: A Parametric Synthetic Benchmark for Time-Series Forecasting in Finance

Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps. Real-world benchmarks offer limited failure attribution: researchers can observe underperformance, but often cannot isolate why because mechanisms are unobservable and entangled. Real financial data reveal only one realized path, making it difficult to assess tail-risk calibration or data efficiency. We introduce FinStressTS, a mechanism-aware synthetic benchmark that links model behavior to controlled structural causes. FinStressTS comprises 30 diagnostic environments around six mechanism families: volatility clustering, multi-scale persistence, heavy-tailed shocks, regime switching, self-exciting jumps, and zero-inflated processes. We evaluate two tasks: point forecasting, using NMAE across five settings, and probabilistic forecasting, using CRPS under known data-generating mechanisms. We benchmark 15 models, from classical methods (HAR, VAR) to Transformer forecasters (PatchTST, iTransformer) and deep probabilistic architectures (DeepAR, TSFlow), and use learning curves to measure sample efficiency. Our evaluation reveals three insights. First, performance is mechanism-dependent: autoregressive and linear models are highly competitive, and often outperform Transformer-based models, in several volatility-, tail-, and jump-driven environments. Second, distributional alignment matters: parametric probabilistic models such as DeepAR calibrate well in stationary settings, while flexible models can help when distributions become multimodal or sparse. Third, neural models often require more data to match simple baselines, with larger gains mainly when learning latent regimes or complex distributions. FinStressTS provides an open framework for diagnosing failure modes and advancing risk-aware forecasting.

DermAgent: A Self-Reflective Agentic System for Dermatological Image Analysis with Multi-Tool Reasoning and Traceable Decision-Making

Dermatological diagnosis requires integrating fine-grained visual perception with expert clinical knowledge. Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) facilitate interactive medical image analysis, their application in dermatology is hindered by insufficient domain-specific grounding and hallucinations. To address these issues, we propose DermAgent, a collaborative multi-tool agent that orchestrates seven specialized vision and language modules within a Plan-Execute-Reflect framework. DermAgent delivers stepwise, traceable diagnostic reasoning through three core components. First, it employs complementary visual perception tools for comprehensive morphological description, dermoscopic concept annotation, and disease diagnosis. Second, to overcome the lack of domain prior, a dual-modality retrieval module anchors every prediction in external evidence by cross-referencing 413,210 diagnosed image cases and 3,199 clinical guideline chunks. To further mitigate hallucinations, a deterministic critic module conducts strict post-hoc auditing via confidence, coverage, and conflict gates, automatically detecting inter-source disagreements to trigger targeted self-correction. Extensive experiments on five dermatology benchmarks demonstrate that DermAgent consistently outperforms state-of-the-art MLLMs and medical agent baselines across zero-shot fine-grained disease diagnosis, concept annotation, and clinical captioning tasks, exceeding GPT-4o by 17.6% in skin disease diagnostic accuracy and 3.15% in captioning ROUGE-L. Our code is available at https://github.com/YizeezLiu/DermAgent.