High-Dimensional Interpolators Can Be Fragile: Heavy Tails and High-Dimensional Large Deviations

High-dimensional interpolation is common in modern machine learning, but its tail risk is less understood than its expected prediction risk. Existing theory shows that interpolating models can perform well in expectation, yet such guarantees do not determine the probability of rare, severe errors. In operations research and stochastic decision-making applications, rare estimation errors can have disproportionate downstream effects, so tail behavior matters alongside average performance. We study the fragility of high-dimensional linear interpolators using large-deviation methods. We focus on ridgeless regression and compare it with ridge-regularized estimators. We first show that the risk of ridgeless regression can exhibit heavy-tailed behavior: although its expected risk may remain well controlled, its upper tail can decay much more slowly than that of regularized alternatives. We then quantify this phenomenon at the level of large-deviation rates. In the regime we study, ridge regularization suppresses fixed right-tail deviations at the $n^2$ scale, whereas ridgeless regression has only $n\log n$-scale decay, where $n$ is the sample size. This gap shows that interpolation can be statistically fragile even when it is accurate on average. Thus regularization affects the frequency of rare, high-impact risk events in addition to the usual bias-variance tradeoff.

An AI-Assisted Solution to the Signed BAR Conjecture: Uniqueness in the Harrison--Reiman Class and a Completely-$\mathcal{S}$ Class Obstruction

For a multidimensional reflected diffusion, determining whether the associated basic adjoint relationship (BAR) uniquely characterizes the stationary distribution is a basic uniqueness problem in the BAR approach. The problem has remained unresolved for more than 35 years since the introduction of the BAR approach. In this paper, we resolve the finite-signed uniqueness problem for stable Harrison--Reiman data with a nonsingular $M$-matrix reflection matrix. The proof uses pathwise differentiability of the reflected diffusion implies feasible directional differentiability of the probabilistic resolvent to show that, at boundary points, its one-sided initial-state derivative factors through the tangent projection and vanishes along active reflection directions. An interior one-sided convolution then yields smooth test functions whose oblique derivatives are uniformly bounded and converge pointwise to zero on each closed face. The interior signed measure is consequently invariant for the reflected semigroup. The proof was discovered with the assistance of ChatGPT 5.5 Pro and subsequently verified by the authors. We also show that the nonsingular $M$-matrix assumption is structural. In the larger completely-$\mathcal{S}$ class, a nonsingular reflection matrix with a singular proper principal block admits boundary gauges supported on lower-dimensional strata. Under standard exponential ergodicity and a mild one-step regulator bound, these gauges produce nonzero zero-mass signed BAR tuples; indeed the zero-mass interior BAR coordinates contain an infinite-dimensional subspace. A four-parameter three-dimensional family, including an explicit rational example, verifies the obstruction. Thus the finite signed version of the Dai--Dieker question has a positive answer in the Harrison--Reiman $M$-matrix class and a negative answer in a natural completely-$\mathcal{S}$ extension.

SURGE: Approximation-free Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate

Diffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated score or gradient evaluations, introducing bias, high computational overhead, or both. We introduce \texttt{URGE}, Unbiased Resampling via Girsanov Estimation, a derivative-free inference-time scaling algorithm that performs path-wise importance reweighting via a Girsanov change of measure. Instead of computing gradient-based particle weights in previous work, \texttt{URGE} attaches a simple multiplicative weight to each simulated trajectory and periodically resamples. No score, no Hessian, and no PDE evaluation is required. We establish an equivalence between path-wise and particle-wise SMC: the Girsanov path weight admits a backward conditional expectation that recovers the previous particle-level weights, guaranteeing that both schemes produce the same unbiased terminal law. Empirically, \texttt{URGE} outperforms existing inference-time guidance baselines on synthetic tests and diffusion-model benchmarks, achieving better generation quality, while being significantly simpler to implement and fully gradient-free.

When PINNs Go Wrong: Pseudo-Time Stepping Against Spurious Solutions

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) provide a promising machine learning framework for solving partial differential equations, but their training often breaks down on challenging problems, sometimes converging to physically incorrect solutions despite achieving small residual losses. This failure, we argue, is not merely an optimization difficulty. Rather, it reflects a fundamental weakness of the empirical PDE residual loss, which can admit trivial or spurious solutions during training. From this perspective, we revisit pseudo-time stepping, a technique that has recently shown strong empirical success in PINNs. We show that its main benefit is not simply to ease optimization; instead, when combined with collocation-point resampling, it helps reveal and avoid spurious solutions. At the same time, we find that the effectiveness of pseudo-time stepping depends critically on the choice of step size, which cannot be tuned reliably from the training loss alone. To overcome this limitation, we propose an adaptive pseudo-time stepping strategy that selects the step size from a finite-difference surrogate of the local residual Jacobian, yielding the largest step permitted by local stability without per-problem tuning. Across a diverse set of PDE benchmarks, the proposed method consistently improves both accuracy and robustness. Together, these findings provide a clearer understanding of why PINNs fail and suggest a practical pathway toward more reliable physics-informed learning. All code and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/sifanexisted/jaxpi2.

RAGEN-2: Reasoning Collapse in Agentic RL

RL training of multi-turn LLM agents is inherently unstable, and reasoning quality directly determines task performance. Entropy is widely used to track reasoning stability. However, entropy only measures diversity within the same input, and cannot tell whether reasoning actually responds to different inputs. In RAGEN-2, we find that even with stable entropy, models can rely on fixed templates that look diverse but are input-agnostic. We call this template collapse, a failure mode invisible to entropy and all existing metrics. To diagnose this failure, we decompose reasoning quality into within-input diversity (Entropy) and cross-input distinguishability (Mutual Information, MI), and introduce a family of mutual information proxies for online diagnosis. Across diverse tasks, mutual information correlates with final performance much more strongly than entropy, making it a more reliable proxy for reasoning quality. We further explain template collapse with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) mechanism. Low reward variance weakens task gradients, letting regularization terms dominate and erase cross-input reasoning differences. To address this, we propose SNR-Aware Filtering to select high-signal prompts per iteration using reward variance as a lightweight proxy. Across planning, math reasoning, web navigation, and code execution, the method consistently improves both input dependence and task performance.

On the Width Scaling of Neural Optimizers Under Matrix Operator Norms I: Row/Column Normalization and Hyperparameter Transfer

A central question in modern deep learning is how to design optimizers whose behavior remains stable as the network width $w$ increases. We address this question by interpreting several widely used neural-network optimizers, including \textrm{AdamW} and \textrm{Muon}, as instances of steepest descent under matrix operator norms. This perspective links optimizer geometry with the Lipschitz structure of the network forward map, and enables width-independent control of both Lipschitz and smoothness constants. However, steepest-descent rules induced by standard $p \to q$ operator norms lack layerwise composability and therefore cannot provide width-independent bounds in deep architectures. We overcome this limitation by introducing a family of mean-normalized operator norms, denoted $\pmean \to \qmean$, that admit layerwise composability, yield width-independent smoothness bounds, and give rise to practical optimizers such as \emph{rescaled} \textrm{AdamW}, row normalization, and column normalization. The resulting learning rate width-aware scaling rules recover $μ$P scaling~\cite{yang2021tensor} as a special case and provide a principled mechanism for cross-width learning-rate transfer across a broad class of optimizers. We further show that \textrm{Muon} can suffer an $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{w})$ worst-case growth in the smoothness constant, whereas a new family of row-normalized optimizers we propose achieves width-independent smoothness guarantees. Based on the observations, we propose MOGA (Matrix Operator Geometry Aware), a width-aware optimizer based only on row/column-wise normalization that enables stable learning-rate transfer across model widths. Large-scale pre-training on GPT-2 and LLaMA shows that MOGA, especially with row normalization, is competitive with Muon while being notably faster in large-token and low-loss regimes.

A Covering Framework for Offline POMDPs Learning using Belief Space Metric

In off policy evaluation (OPE) for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), an agent must infer hidden states from past observations, which exacerbates both the curse of horizon and the curse of memory in existing OPE methods. This paper introduces a novel covering analysis framework that exploits the intrinsic metric structure of the belief space (distributions over latent states) to relax traditional coverage assumptions. By assuming value relevant functions are Lipschitz continuous in the belief space, we derive error bounds that mitigate exponential blow ups in horizon and memory length. Our unified analysis technique applies to a broad class of OPE algorithms, yielding concrete error bounds and coverage requirements expressed in terms of belief space metrics rather than raw history coverage. We illustrate the improved sample efficiency of this framework via case studies: the double sampling Bellman error minimization algorithm, and the memory based future dependent value functions (FDVF). In both cases, our coverage definition based on the belief space metric yields tighter bounds.

On the Power of (Approximate) Reward Models for Inference-Time Scaling

Inference-time scaling has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for improving the reasoning capability of large language models. Among various approaches, Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) has become a particularly important framework, enabling iterative generation, evaluation, rejection, and resampling of intermediate reasoning trajectories. A central component in this process is the reward model, which evaluates partial solutions and guides the allocation of computation during inference. However, in practice, true reward models are never available. All deployed systems rely on approximate reward models, raising a fundamental question: Why and when do approximate reward models suffice for effective inference-time scaling? In this work, we provide a theoretical answer. We identify the Bellman error of the approximate reward model as the key quantity governing the effectiveness of SMC-based inference-time scaling. For a reasoning process of length $T$, we show that if the Bellman error of the approximate reward model is bounded by $O(1/T)$, then combining this reward model with SMC reduces the computational complexity of reasoning from exponential in $T$ to polynomial in $T$. This yields an exponential improvement in inference efficiency despite using only approximate rewards.

RAGEN: Understanding Self-Evolution in LLM Agents via Multi-Turn Reinforcement Learning

Training large language models (LLMs) as interactive agents presents unique challenges including long-horizon decision making and interacting with stochastic environment feedback. While reinforcement learning (RL) has enabled progress in static tasks, multi-turn agent RL training remains underexplored. We propose StarPO (State-Thinking-Actions-Reward Policy Optimization), a general framework for trajectory-level agent RL, and introduce RAGEN, a modular system for training and evaluating LLM agents. Our study on three stylized environments reveals three core findings. First, our agent RL training shows a recurring mode of Echo Trap where reward variance cliffs and gradient spikes; we address this with StarPO-S, a stabilized variant with trajectory filtering, critic incorporation, and decoupled clipping. Second, we find the shaping of RL rollouts would benefit from diverse initial states, medium interaction granularity and more frequent sampling. Third, we show that without fine-grained, reasoning-aware reward signals, agent reasoning hardly emerge through multi-turn RL and they may show shallow strategies or hallucinated thoughts. Code and environments are available at https://github.com/RAGEN-AI/RAGEN.

Physics-Informed Inference Time Scaling via Simulation-Calibrated Scientific Machine Learning

High-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) pose significant computational challenges across fields ranging from quantum chemistry to economics and finance. Although scientific machine learning (SciML) techniques offer approximate solutions, they often suffer from bias and neglect crucial physical insights. Inspired by inference-time scaling strategies in language models, we propose Simulation-Calibrated Scientific Machine Learning (SCaSML), a physics-informed framework that dynamically refines and debiases the SCiML predictions during inference by enforcing the physical laws. SCaSML leverages derived new physical laws that quantifies systematic errors and employs Monte Carlo solvers based on the Feynman-Kac and Elworthy-Bismut-Li formulas to dynamically correct the prediction. Both numerical and theoretical analysis confirms enhanced convergence rates via compute-optimal inference methods. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that SCaSML reduces errors by 20-50% compared to the base surrogate model, establishing it as the first algorithm to refine approximated solutions to high-dimensional PDE during inference. Code of SCaSML is available at https://github.com/Francis-Fan-create/SCaSML.