AdaNAS: Adaptively Post-processing with Self-supervised Neural Architecture Search for Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts

Previous post-processing studies on rainfall forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) mainly focus on statistics-based aspects, while learning-based aspects are rarely investigated. Although some manually-designed models are proposed to raise accuracy, they are customized networks, which need to be repeatedly tried and verified, at a huge cost in time and labor. Therefore, a self-supervised neural architecture search (NAS) method without significant manual efforts called AdaNAS is proposed in this study to perform rainfall forecast post-processing and predict rainfall with high accuracy. In addition, we design a rainfall-aware search space to significantly improve forecasts for high-rainfall areas. Furthermore, we propose a rainfall-level regularization function to eliminate the effect of noise data during the training. Validation experiments have been performed under the cases of \emph{None}, \emph{Light}, \emph{Moderate}, \emph{Heavy} and \emph{Violent} on a large-scale precipitation benchmark named TIGGE. Finally, the average mean-absolute error (MAE) and average root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the proposed AdaNAS model are 0.98 and 2.04 mm/day, respectively. Additionally, the proposed AdaNAS model is compared with other neural architecture search methods and previous studies. Compared results reveal the satisfactory performance and superiority of the proposed AdaNAS model in terms of precipitation amount prediction and intensity classification. Concretely, the proposed AdaNAS model outperformed previous best-performing manual methods with MAE and RMSE improving by 80.5\% and 80.3\%, respectively.

SAIH: A Scalable Evaluation Methodology for Understanding AI Performance Trend on HPC Systems

Novel artificial intelligence (AI) technology has expedited various scientific research, e.g., cosmology, physics and bioinformatics, inevitably becoming a significant category of workload on high performance computing (HPC) systems. Existing AI benchmarks tend to customize well-recognized AI applications, so as to evaluate the AI performance of HPC systems under predefined problem size, in terms of datasets and AI models. Due to lack of scalability on the problem size, static AI benchmarks might be under competent to help understand the performance trend of evolving AI applications on HPC systems, in particular, the scientific AI applications on large-scale systems. In this paper, we propose a scalable evaluation methodology (SAIH) for analyzing the AI performance trend of HPC systems with scaling the problem sizes of customized AI applications. To enable scalability, SAIH builds a set of novel mechanisms for augmenting problem sizes. As the data and model constantly scale, we can investigate the trend and range of AI performance on HPC systems, and further diagnose system bottlenecks. To verify our methodology, we augment a cosmological AI application to evaluate a real HPC system equipped with GPUs as a case study of SAIH.