Explainable Artificial Intelligence Methods in Combating Pandemics: A Systematic Review

Despite the myriad peer-reviewed papers demonstrating novel Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based solutions to COVID-19 challenges during the pandemic, few have made significant clinical impact. The impact of artificial intelligence during the COVID-19 pandemic was greatly limited by lack of model transparency. This systematic review examines the use of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) during the pandemic and how its use could overcome barriers to real-world success. We find that successful use of XAI can improve model performance, instill trust in the end-user, and provide the value needed to affect user decision-making. We introduce the reader to common XAI techniques, their utility, and specific examples of their application. Evaluation of XAI results is also discussed as an important step to maximize the value of AI-based clinical decision support systems. We illustrate the classical, modern, and potential future trends of XAI to elucidate the evolution of novel XAI techniques. Finally, we provide a checklist of suggestions during the experimental design process supported by recent publications. Common challenges during the implementation of AI solutions are also addressed with specific examples of potential solutions. We hope this review may serve as a guide to improve the clinical impact of future AI-based solutions.

Public Health Informatics: Proposing Causal Sequence of Death Using Neural Machine Translation

Each year there are nearly 57 million deaths around the world, with over 2.7 million in the United States. Timely, accurate and complete death reporting is critical in public health, as institutions and government agencies rely on death reports to analyze vital statistics and to formulate responses to communicable diseases. Inaccurate death reporting may result in potential misdirection of public health policies. Determining the causes of death is, nevertheless, challenging even for experienced physicians. To facilitate physicians in accurately reporting causes of death, we present an advanced AI approach to determine a chronically ordered sequence of clinical conditions that lead to death, based on decedent's last hospital admission discharge record. The sequence of clinical codes on the death report is named as causal chain of death, coded in the tenth revision of International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD-10); the priority-ordered clinical conditions on the discharge record are coded in ICD-9. We identify three challenges in proposing the causal chain of death: two versions of coding system in clinical codes, medical domain knowledge conflict, and data interoperability. To overcome the first challenge in this sequence-to-sequence problem, we apply neural machine translation models to generate target sequence. We evaluate the quality of generated sequences with the BLEU (BiLingual Evaluation Understudy) score and achieve 16.44 out of 100. To address the second challenge, we incorporate expert-verified medical domain knowledge as constraint in generating output sequence to exclude infeasible causal chains. Lastly, we demonstrate the usability of our work in a Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) interface to address the third challenge.

DeepDeath: Learning to Predict the Underlying Cause of Death with Big Data

Multiple cause-of-death data provides a valuable source of information that can be used to enhance health standards by predicting health related trajectories in societies with large populations. These data are often available in large quantities across U.S. states and require Big Data techniques to uncover complex hidden patterns. We design two different classes of models suitable for large-scale analysis of mortality data, a Hadoop-based ensemble of random forests trained over N-grams, and the DeepDeath, a deep classifier based on the recurrent neural network (RNN). We apply both classes to the mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and show that while both perform significantly better than the random classifier, the deep model that utilizes long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), surpasses the N-gram based models and is capable of learning the temporal aspect of the data without a need for building ad-hoc, expert-driven features.